By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan says Türkiye can meet Saudi military needs in technical areas as the Mecca Pact moves toward personnel assignments and a headquarters. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is heading into UN week as Ankara reopens the S-400 file with Washington, Iran-related banking and aviation restrictions take effect, Cyprus talks remain unsettled and Türkiye works on a Black Sea shipping arrangement.
Gulf Security
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Türkiye would have no problem meeting Saudi military needs in certain technical areas, referring to the collective-defense provision in the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on Aug. 7.
The next institutional stage would involve assigning personnel and establishing a headquarters, Fidan said. He dismissed claims that the pact existed only on paper and described it as a platform that could change the regional security environment. He also argued that Saudi Arabia should be kept outside the direct US-Iran confrontation because Riyadh was not seeking to enter that conflict.
The comments came hours after Saudi air defenses intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile targeting Riyadh. The group claimed missile and drone attacks on the capital and other Saudi locations, including an Aramco facility in Yanbu. Firefighters extinguished a blaze at an Aramco-branded fuel depot near King Khalid International Airport, while Saudi authorities said attempted attacks on Yanbu, Taif, Farasan and other locations were also thwarted.
The United Nations Security Council condemned continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including strikes affecting civilian and energy infrastructure, reaffirmed Riyadh's right to self-defense under international law and called for implementation of the arms embargo established under Resolution 2216.
The Mecca Pact has not been submitted to the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (TBMM) and has not completed Türkiye's ratification process.
Türkiye Markets
Türkiye is liquidating 131 investment funds at the center of a market crisis that has exposed the low-float pricing weaknesses MSCI raised months earlier.
The Capital Markets Board (CMB) has said unexplained price movements in low-free-float shares were visible from late 2025. The liquidation process, being handled by İş Bankası and Ziraat Bankası, can run for up to three months and may overlap with MSCI's next review. The fund crisis has brought MSCI's June warning back into focus, while the freezing and gradual liquidation of investor holdings has increased scrutiny of confidence in regulated funds and the risk of savings shifting toward gold and foreign currency.
Türkiye-US Defense
Fidan said Ankara and Washington are working on "creative ideas" to resolve the S-400 dispute and remove sanctions imposed under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
He did not disclose the proposals under discussion. The United States imposed CAATSA sanctions in 2020 and removed Türkiye from the F-35 program over Ankara's purchase of the Russian air-defense system. The sanctions remain an obstacle for Türkiye's defense industry, Fidan said, adding that Ankara hopes progress can be made with Washington.
The remarks put CAATSA and the S-400 dispute on the bilateral agenda immediately before Erdoğan's expected meeting with United States President Donald Trump in New York.
Diplomacy
Erdoğan begins a Sept. 20-23 United States visit for the 81st United Nations General Assembly and is scheduled to address the General Debate on Sept. 22. The Presidency's Directorate of Communications said he will also meet UN Secretary-General António Guterres and other leaders. US Ambassador to Türkiye Tom Barrack has said Erdoğan and Trump will meet in New York, but no date or detailed agenda has been publicly announced.
The trip follows several Iran-related financial and aviation measures. Türkiye's banking regulator revoked Bank Mellat's Istanbul operating licence on Sept. 18. Mahan Air's Türkiye services are due to be suspended from Sept. 21, while an Office of Foreign Assets Control wind-down licence covering sanctioned Golden Global Yatırım Bankası expired on Sept. 19.
The Bank Mellat, Mahan Air and Golden Global sequence falls immediately before the Erdoğan-Trump meeting. Turkish and US authorities have not publicly said the measures were taken because of the meeting. Washington has acknowledged discussions with Türkiye over enforcement of US measures against Iran.
At the United Nations, Russia and China on Thursday vetoed a US-backed resolution extending independent monitoring of sanctions on Iran. The draft received 11 votes in favor, with Pakistan and Somalia abstaining. The expert panel's mandate expires on Sept. 26.
Black Sea
Türkiye has received responses from Russia and Ukraine to its proposal for reciprocal restraint against attacks on civilian shipping, but Fidan says the two positions remain difficult to reconcile.
"We received responses from both sides," Fidan said, adding that Ankara's first priority is keeping grain moving from Black Sea ports. The Turkish initiative comes as Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis warns that disruption to Black Sea grain flows could push food prices higher. The disruption is increasing both food-security concerns and pressure for a negotiated shipping arrangement.
London's Joint War Committee has expanded its high-risk reporting area to the entire Black Sea as attacks on commercial vessels increase. Voyages inside the territorial waters of Türkiye, Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia remain outside the notification requirement, but war-risk premiums have risen sharply.
Cyprus
Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman enter New York week without agreement on confidence-building measures, negotiating methodology or substantive issues.
Christodoulides said he tabled 19 points during their Sept. 17 meeting covering all three areas. The package has not been published. The sides also continue to give different accounts of the seven issues Guterres asked them to advance: the Greek Cypriot side says it accepted all seven, while Erhürman says the Turkish Cypriot side accepted six and that crossing points remain unresolved.
Erhürman said after the meeting that no agreement had been reached in any of the three negotiating areas and that conditions for a new 5+1 meeting had not yet been established. No joint 3+1 or 5+1 meeting is scheduled in New York.
The death toll from the Filo Jet sinking off Kyrenia has risen to 15, with 13 people still missing. The wreck remains at a depth of 554 meters and investigators have yet to recover the voyage data recorder.
Cyprus Energy
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz says Türkiye will proceed with its planned natural gas pipeline to northern Cyprus and a separate fiber infrastructure project despite objections from the Greek Cypriot side.
The gas project envisages two parallel pipelines running about 101 kilometers between Anamur and Teknecik. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has said the system will be bidirectional, allowing gas to move in either direction. The Republic of Cyprus has challenged the project at the United Nations on sovereignty and maritime-jurisdiction grounds.
The reverse-flow design could eventually connect Cyprus gas with the Turkish system, although no offshore field or supply agreement has been assigned to the route. Yılmaz said the fiber project would also proceed.
Military Posture
Türkiye's Denizkurdu-I/2026 naval exercise began on Sept. 20 in the Black Sea, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean and runs through Sept. 25. The Ministry of National Defence said 100 vessels, 50 aircraft and about 14,000 personnel are taking part.
The exercise begins as Aegean rhetoric has sharpened again. Fidan said Türkiye does not accept the militarization of islands Ankara considers subject to demilitarization provisions and said Turkish armed forces and coast guard units remain highly alert. Greek outlets described his warning against "reckless" moves as threatening language. Greece disputes Türkiye's legal interpretation of the islands' status.
The discussion follows renewed attention on the 51st Commando Brigade's relocation to Söke, although official dates show the move was approved months before Mitsotakis visited Kastellorizo, known as Meis in Turkish, and nearby islets in September.
Iraq-Türkiye Energy
Iraq has begun moving southern crude by tanker truck to storage facilities in Kirkuk in an attempt to increase exports through Türkiye's Ceyhan terminal while its main Gulf outlet remains constrained by the war around Iran.
Local firm KAR Group used 209 trucks to move more than 6 million liters, around 38,000 barrels, during the first two days of a pilot operation that began Sept. 13. The crude is unloaded in Kirkuk before entering the northern export system connected to Ceyhan.
Northern exports are running at roughly 200,000 barrels per day, below about 250,000 before the conflict. Truck availability and limited loading infrastructure in southern Iraq restrict how far the temporary route can be expanded.
Hormuz
Commodity traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below recent norms even as some liquefied natural gas vessels reappear.
Preliminary Kpler data showed four commodity vessels crossing the strait on Thursday, against a 10-day average of 16. Some vessels are operating with Automatic Identification System transponders switched off, meaning visible traffic does not capture every movement.
The disruption is already forcing exporters to look for alternatives. Iraq is testing additional flows toward Ceyhan, while Fidan has warned that the economic cost of the wider regional conflict has moved beyond easily absorbable levels.
Saudi Defense
The US Department of State has approved a possible $24.3 billion sale of 48 F-35A fighters and 49 engines to Saudi Arabia, sending the package into congressional review.
Israel remains the only Middle Eastern operator of the F-35. The prospective Saudi sale is expected to draw scrutiny over protection of sensitive technology and Riyadh's defense links with China.
The proposed F-35 sale comes as Washington also examines Saudi defense links with China and Riyadh faces renewed attacks from Yemen. Saudi Arabia is seeking advanced US aircraft while expanding security cooperation with Türkiye and Pakistan through the Mecca Pact.
Migration
Fewer migrants are reaching Europe by sea in 2026, but more are dying or disappearing.
International Organization for Migration (IOM) data through Sept. 15 show nearly 60,000 sea arrivals, about 40% fewer than a year earlier, while almost 2,300 people died or went missing. Greece recorded roughly 5,000 fewer arrivals but a 47% rise in fatalities, with longer journeys from eastern Libya toward Crete among the routes drawing particular concern.
Those figures should not be merged statistically with the route shift previously identified by Bosphorus News. Greek migration data showed Crete receiving 9,973 people from January through July, more than Evros and the eastern Aegean islands combined, while Turkish Coast Guard records showed fewer migrant encounters but more recorded deaths.
South Caucasus
Iran is pressing Azerbaijan to include a north-south rail link through Nakhchivan as implementation of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) moves forward.
Iranian Ambassador to Armenia Khalil Shirgholami said Azerbaijan should enable a railway connection between Armenia and Iran through Nakhchivan in return for Armenia facilitating Azerbaijan's land connection to the exclave. He specifically cited a Yeraskh-Julfa railway and linked it to a Persian Gulf-Black Sea corridor.
Armenia's Constitutional Court has ruled that the TRIPP framework complies with the constitution, allowing the agreement to move toward parliamentary ratification. Iran's proposal would give Armenia direct rail access to Iran through Nakhchivan as Armenia and Azerbaijan prepare the next stages of the corridor.
Bosphorus Read
The Riyadh attacks came before the Mecca Pact completed Türkiye's ratification process. Fidan's offer of technical military support does not by itself amount to a Turkish troop deployment. Sending Turkish armed forces abroad is governed by Article 92 of the Constitution, which gives authorization to the TBMM subject to specified treaty and international-courtesy exceptions.
New York opens with CAATSA and the S-400 dispute back in direct Türkiye-US talks. Bank Mellat lost its operating licence on Sept. 18, the Golden Global wind-down period expired on Sept. 19 and Mahan Air's Türkiye services are due to be suspended from Sept. 21. All three developments fall immediately before the Erdoğan-Trump meeting, but neither government has said the meeting caused them.
Sources: United Nations Security Council, Türkiye's Ministry of National Defence, Presidency's Directorate of Communications, Capital Markets Board, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, Office of Foreign Assets Control, NTV, Republic of Cyprus government, TRNC Presidency and Prime Ministry, Armenia's Constitutional Court, International Organization for Migration, Reuters, Associated Press, AFP, Financial Times, Cyprus Mail, Politis, Ta Nea, Bosphorus News review and reporting.
Read Yesterday's brief: Eastern Mediterranean Strategic Brief | September 19, 2026.