By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk
The death toll from the Filo Jet disaster off Girne rose to 15 after search teams recovered another body. Türkiye is preparing to halt Mahan Air flights from Sept. 21, overlapping exercises will keep naval forces active from the Black Sea to the central Mediterranean, and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are putting the Mecca Pact under its first sustained pressure.
Cyprus
Filo Jet Death Toll Rises to 15
Search teams recovered another body from the Filo Jet passenger vessel that sank off Girne on Aug. 30, raising the confirmed death toll to 15, Turkish Cypriot Prime Minister Ünal Üstel said on Saturday. Thirteen people remain missing, and identification of the latest victim will follow DNA testing.
Court proceedings in the criminal investigation continued this week, with evidence including records indicating that damage to the vessel had been known before the disaster.
Rotating Presidency Dispute Sharpens Before New York
A rotating presidency is an "indispensable component of political equality" and should be accepted in principle before formal negotiations resume, Mehmet Dana, undersecretary to Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman, said on Sept. 18.
Dana said previous rounds, including the 2017 Crans-Montana talks, had turned political equality into a negotiating issue. He argued that the principle of a rotating presidency should be settled first, leaving the duration of each community's term for negotiation.
Greek Cypriot deputy government spokesman Yiannis Antoniou rejected that approach. He said the Turkish Cypriot side was extending political equality toward sovereign equality and maintained that a rotating presidency should emerge from negotiations rather than be accepted beforehand.
Antoniou also rejected the fourth point of Erhürman's proposed methodology, which seeks predefined consequences if the Greek Cypriot side leaves a future negotiating process.
Erhürman said after his Sept. 17 meeting with Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides that conditions for another 5+1 meeting had not yet been met. Political equality now joins methodology, confidence-building measures and the crossing-point file on the agenda before UN General Assembly week.
Both leaders are due to meet United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres separately in New York.
Türkiye-Turkish Cypriot Relations
Yılmaz Defends Gas Pipeline During Two-Day Visit
Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz defended the planned Türkiye-Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) natural gas pipeline during his two-day visit, saying objections from the Greek Cypriot side showed Ankara was pursuing the right course.
"It seems we have upset some people," Yılmaz said. The Republic of Cyprus has protested the pipeline memorandum to Guterres and argues that it has no legal effect. Türkiye and the Turkish Cypriot government signed the memorandum in July.
Yılmaz also reiterated Ankara's support for what Türkiye and the Turkish Cypriot side describe as sovereign equality.
Fifteen Atlılar Victims Buried 52 Years Later
Yılmaz, Erhürman and Üstel attended the burial of 15 Turkish Cypriots killed at Atlılar (Aloa) on Aug. 14, 1974.
The bicommunal Committee on Missing Persons identified the victims from remains recovered during excavations between July 2023 and April 2024. Nine were children, including a 40-day-old baby and a 16-month-old child.
A museum documenting the killings at Atlılar, Muratağa and Sandallar opened after the funeral.
Defense
Medusa Ends as Denizkurdu-I Begins Across Four Seas
Greece, Egypt and the Republic of Cyprus concluded the multinational Medusa 15 exercise on Sept. 18 after 10 days of operations around Crete and the Aegean Sea. France and Italy contributed personnel and assets, while the United Arab Emirates, Serbia, Mozambique and Bahrain attended as observers.
Türkiye launches Denizkurdu-I/2026 on Sept. 20 across the Black Sea, Marmara Sea, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. Naval, land, air and coast guard elements will take part in operational-readiness and live-weapons training, with a Distinguished Observer Day aboard TCG Anadolu in the Eastern Mediterranean on Sept. 24.
The Denizkurdu-I calendar and related overseas deployments also place Turkish personnel in several other maritime exercises during the same period. REPMUS, focused on unmanned maritime systems in Portugal, continues through Sept. 25, while Dynamic Guard-II begins in the central Mediterranean on Sept. 21 with a Turkish unit assigned to Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 participating in electronic-warfare training.
TCG Burgazada joined Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 on Sept. 18 for a deployment lasting into November, leaving Turkish naval personnel active simultaneously in home waters, Portugal and the central Mediterranean.
Republic of Cyprus to Display Barak MX on Oct. 1
Republic of Cyprus Defense Minister Vasilis Palmas said the Israeli-made Barak MX air-defense system will be shown publicly for the first time during the Oct. 1 Independence Day parade.
Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias is expected to attend, while an Egyptian military contingent will also participate. Palmas is due to travel to Cairo for a trilateral meeting with his Greek and Egyptian counterparts.
Palmas said work is continuing on modernization of the Andreas Papandreou Air Base in Paphos and on the acquisition of 40 Hummer military vehicles.
Türkiye-Iran
Türkiye to Suspend Mahan Air Flights as US Sanctions Reach Service Network
Türkiye will suspend Mahan Air flights from Sept. 21 after sanctions reached Turkish companies providing services to the Iranian carrier, Turkish officials told Middle East Eye.
The United States Treasury Department on Sept. 8 sanctioned Türkiye-based S Sistem and Mes Cargo for supporting Mahan Air. The package also targeted foreign companies involved in procurement and operational support for Iranian aviation.
Turkish officials said the suspension applies to Mahan Air rather than Iranian carriers generally, although other airlines remain under review.
Bank Mellat Loses Operating License After 44 Years
The Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) revoked the operating licence of Bank Mellat's Istanbul Türkiye headquarters branch under Article 71 of the Banking Law. The decision was taken on Sept. 18 and published in the Official Gazette on Sept. 19.
Bank Mellat had operated in Türkiye since 1982, with branches in Istanbul, Ankara and İzmir. Unlike the Mahan Air suspension, the published BDDK decision does not cite US sanctions as the reason for withdrawing the licence.
Iran Presses Baku for Nakhchivan Rail Access as TRIPP Advances
Tehran's ambassador to Armenia has called on Azerbaijan to allow an Armenia-Iran railway connection through Nakhchivan as work advances on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).
The proposed Yeraskh-Julfa connection would give Armenia rail access toward Iran and could connect with the wider Persian Gulf-Black Sea route. Tehran argues that if Armenia facilitates Azerbaijan's connection to Nakhchivan through TRIPP, Baku should reciprocate by reopening the rail link through the exclave.
The Iranian proposal for reciprocal rail access through Nakhchivan keeps transport diplomacy active even as Iranian aviation and banking ties in Türkiye face tighter restrictions.
Türkiye Security
Bayık Makes Öcalan's Release a Condition for Disarmament
Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK) Executive Council Co-Chair Cemil Bayık said the movement would not lay down its arms or return to Türkiye unless Abdullah Öcalan is freed. The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is designated as a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the United States and the European Union.
His demand adds another condition to the disarmament process as the debate over Öcalan's possible role in the next phase continues.
US-Türkiye / Russia
Trump Signs Sanctions Law as Moscow Awaits Ankara on Arms Transfer
US President Donald Trump signed H.R. 5334, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, into law on Sept. 18.
The legislation expands sanctions and tariff authorities targeting Russia and extends existing sanctions on Iran. Türkiye is not automatically subject to a tariff. Application will depend on how the administration calculates major buyers of Russian energy and uses the waiver powers provided by the law.
Implementation now rests with the administration, including the tariff mechanism that could expose Türkiye through its purchases of Russian energy.
Moscow is also waiting for Ankara to explain a proposed transfer of US-origin weapons from Turkish stocks to Ukraine. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said on Sept. 18 that Russia had still received no answer.
US congressional notifications cover 12 M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System launchers, 70 M39 Army Tactical Missile System missiles, more than 2,500 M26 rockets and 47,000 artillery rounds. The congressional review period has expired, but there is no public record that the weapons have been transferred.
Moscow first sought clarification in August. The ATACMS and M270 proposal was still unresolved after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Bishkek on Sept. 1.
Gulf Security
Houthi Attacks Put Mecca Pact Under Sustained Pressure
Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are parties to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed on Aug. 7, under which an armed attack on one member is treated as an attack on all three.
Repeated Houthi attacks on Saudi territory are the pact's first sustained security challenge. Türkiye has condemned the attacks, while Pakistan has pressed Iran to restrain the Houthis.
Saudi Arabia has not publicly invoked the agreement or formally requested military support. Pakistan said earlier this month that no military response had been discussed under the pact.
Tanker Attacks Keep Hormuz Traffic Below Normal
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely reduced after another tanker was struck on Sept. 18.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre reported a projectile strike and a fire aboard one vessel, with no casualties. Iran separately said it had targeted the Togo-flagged tanker Trend after accusing it of attempting an unauthorized passage.
Only four commodity vessels transited Hormuz on Thursday, compared with a 10-day average of 16, according to preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters.
Black Sea
Insurers Expand High-Risk Zone Across Almost Entire Black Sea
London's marine insurance market has expanded its Black Sea war-risk listed area to cover almost the entire basin following increased attacks on commercial shipping.
The Joint War Committee's revised designation excludes voyages within the territorial waters of Türkiye, Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia from the expanded notification requirement. Russian and Ukrainian waters remain covered.
The designation does not prohibit navigation but can bring additional reporting requirements, underwriting conditions and higher war-risk premiums.
Türkiye's proposal for reciprocal protection of civilian shipping between Russia and Ukraine has received no public acceptance or rejection from Moscow or Kiev.
Türkiye Markets
Fund Liquidations Continue During Heavy Regulatory Week
The Capital Markets Board of Türkiye halted trading in funds managed by seven portfolio companies and moved a large group into liquidation after liquidity problems reached the equity market.
Turkish authorities expanded central bank liquidity support and adjusted market rules as the BIST 100 sold off sharply. The Bank Mellat licence withdrawal came during the same week but remains a separate banking action.
The fund freeze and its impact on confidence in regulated savings products has widened the discussion to whether households return part of their savings to gold and foreign currency.
Bosphorus Read
Filo Jet keeps Cyprus focused on an active search and criminal investigation just as UN General Assembly week pushes the political dispute back toward substance. The Turkish Cypriot side wants the principle of a rotating presidency accepted as part of political equality before formal negotiations, while the Greek Cypriot side says that formula belongs inside the talks.
The maritime calendar is crowded. Medusa 15 has ended, Denizkurdu-I begins on Sept. 20, Turkish units are active in Portugal and the central Mediterranean, and the Republic of Cyprus plans to display Barak MX publicly on Oct. 1.
Mahan Air faces suspension after sanctions reached Turkish service providers, while Bank Mellat is losing its Turkish licence under a BDDK decision that does not cite sanctions. Tehran is pressing Azerbaijan for rail access through Nakhchivan as TRIPP advances. Washington's new Russia-Iran sanctions law adds another risk for Ankara through Russian energy purchases, while Moscow is still waiting for an answer on the proposed ATACMS and M270 transfer.
Saudi Arabia has not invoked the Mecca Pact despite continued Houthi attacks. Hormuz traffic remains depressed, while the Black Sea insurance decision is raising reporting and premium costs for commercial shipping across the basin.
Sources: Turkish Cypriot authorities, Committee on Missing Persons, Cyprus Mail, Hellenic National Defence General Staff, Türkiye Ministry of National Defence, Republic of Cyprus Defense Ministry, US Treasury Department, US White House, US Congressional Record, Russian Foreign Ministry, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, Middle East Eye, Reuters, Joint War Committee, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, Turkish Grand National Assembly, Official Gazette, Bosphorus News review and reporting.
Read Yesterday's brief: September 18.