By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk
Cyprus heads to New York without agreed negotiating rules. Türkiye's financial authorities are dealing with fund liquidations and criminal probes as disruptions around the Black Sea and Hormuz redirect oil, shipping and overland trade.
Cyprus
New York Talks Approach With Negotiating Rules Still Unsettled
Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman and Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides will take separate assessments to United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres after their Sept. 17 meeting ended without an announced agreement on confidence-building measures, methodology or substance. The United Nations described the meeting as a "good discussion" and said both leaders would brief Guterres in New York.
Erhürman said no confidence-building measure has been resolved and another meaningful 5+1 meeting requires more preparatory work in Nicosia. The New York contacts follow 27 leader and negotiator meetings that have yet to produce a shared methodology. How previous convergences would carry into a new negotiating phase also remains unsettled.
Türkiye Markets
131 Funds Enter Liquidation as Manipulation Probes Widen
The Capital Markets Board of Türkiye (CMB) has placed 131 investment funds founded by seven portfolio-management companies into liquidation and suspended transactions in their participation shares. Türkiye İş Bankası will oversee six Tera Portföy funds on the revised list, while Ziraat Bankası will handle funds established by six other managers.
Assets will be sold as market conditions allow and the proceeds distributed to investors. The regulator set a three-month liquidation period, with scope for an extension.
Two separate manipulation investigations are proceeding alongside the regulatory action. Four suspects, including fund board officials, were jailed in one case, while 51 people were placed under judicial-control measures. A separate Bakırköy investigation into alleged social-media manipulation produced another 16 arrests, bringing the total across the two files to 20.
Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek attributed the disruption to credit and liquidity problems at a limited number of funds and said he saw no structural or systemic problem across the wider market. CMB said unusual price movements involving some funds had been discussed at the Financial Stability Committee meeting on Dec. 2, 2025, followed by regulatory changes during 2026.
191 Detained in International Forex Fraud Investigation
Turkish prosecutors said 191 suspects had been detained by Friday afternoon in four investigations into an international network accused of using fake forex and cryptocurrency platforms to defraud foreign nationals.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office said the cases cover fraud, money laundering, capital-markets violations and organized crime. Turkish authorities allege Israel-linked individuals were prominent in the ownership and ultimate-beneficiary structures of companies under investigation. The allegation remains part of an ongoing criminal investigation.
Northern Cyprus
Earlier Repair Emerges in Filo Jet Investigation
A Kyrenia court extended the detention of nine suspects in the Filo Jet investigation for another seven days after police presented new material recovered from mobile phones.
Investigators told the court that WhatsApp photographs dated June 17 showed a break at the tip of the vessel's left-front section being repaired by a crew member on the captain's instructions. Police have taken more than 300 statements, and five people remain wanted.
Black Sea
Fatal Merchant-Ship Attack Tests Türkiye's Shipping Initiative
A Russian drone strike on a Tanzania-flagged merchant vessel heading toward a Ukrainian port killed its captain and injured three crew members on Sept. 17, adding another civilian-shipping casualty to the Black Sea file.
The attack comes as Ankara's Black Sea navigation track has moved from months of diplomacy to a written memorandum. Türkiye is seeking reciprocal protection for civilian vessels, although verification of cargo remains unresolved.
A drone also crossed briefly into Moldovan airspace during the same period of Russian strikes. Moldova's Defense Ministry said the unidentified aircraft entered from the direction of Biliaivka, Ukraine, at 08:56 and left near Palanca two minutes later.
Bulgaria has separately authorized Turkish Coast Guard vessel TCSG-312, with TCSG-303 as reserve, to visit Burgas and the Border Police base at Sozopol from Sept. 29 to Oct. 2 under the bilateral coast-guard cooperation plan.
Syria
Türkiye and Israel Clash at UN Over Military Presence
Türkiye and Israel confronted each other directly over military deployments during the United Nations Security Council's latest Syria session.
Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon claimed Türkiye had around 20,000 troops and more than 100 bases in Syria. Türkiye's UN Ambassador Ahmet Yıldız rejected the criticism, saying Turkish military cooperation was conducted with the Syrian government's consent and was not directed against another state. Danon's troop and base figures were Israeli claims and were not independently established during the meeting.
UN officials also called for violations of Syrian sovereignty to end and for the 1974 disengagement agreement to be respected.
Defense
Türkiye Confirms Söke Brigade Move as Denizkurdu-I Approaches
Türkiye's Defense Ministry confirmed that the 51st Commando Brigade has moved to Söke in Aydın province, across the Aegean from Samos. The ministry said the change of station was approved in June on the basis of force structure, mission and operational requirements, before Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis' September visit to Kastellorizo, known in Türkiye as Meis.
Denizkurdu-I will run from Sept. 20 to 24 across the Black Sea, Sea of Marmara, Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean. TCG Burgazada is also beginning a deployment with NATO Standing Maritime Group 2 that will continue into November.
Greek Parliament Ratifies NATO Ballistic-Missile Defense Framework
The Greek parliament ratified an agreement between the Defense Ministry and the NATO Communications and Information Agency covering Greece's national contribution to NATO ballistic-missile defense capabilities.
The agreement establishes the institutional framework for Greece's participation. It does not establish that the wider Achilles Shield procurement program has been incorporated into NATO's system.
Türkiye-Iran Security
Ankara and Tehran Put PKK-PJAK Disarmament on Common Agenda
Türkiye and Iran have brought the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) and related regional structures into the same bilateral security discussion.
During Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni's Ankara visit, the two sides discussed the dismantling of PKK structures operating under different names and regions, security risks linked to PJAK and cross-border security cooperation. Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi also warned that elements resisting disarmament could move toward Iran.
TRNC Politics
Erhürman Returns Election-Law Amendment to Parliament
Erhürman returned amendments to the Election and Referendum Law to parliament and asked lawmakers to reconsider four points.
He questioned applying the change to the coming election, using the same rules for general and local elections, the treatment of independent candidates and the precedent created by changing election rules shortly before a vote. His objection was directed at the timing and structure of the amendment rather than the abolition of mixed voting itself.
Türkiye-Brazil
Defense Cooperation Agreement Receives Final Turkish Approval
Türkiye completed its domestic approval of the Defense Industry Cooperation Agreement with Brazil after Presidential Decision No. 11799 was published in the Official Gazette on Sept. 18. The agreement was signed in March 2022 and had already cleared parliament in June.
It creates a legal framework for cooperation in development, production, procurement, maintenance and technical and logistical support. No specific weapons purchase is attached to the agreement.
Iraq-Türkiye Energy
Southern Iraqi Crude Moves North Toward Ceyhan
Iraq has begun a pilot operation moving southern crude by road to Kirkuk as Baghdad seeks additional export capacity through Türkiye's Ceyhan terminal during the disruption around Hormuz.
KAR Group used 209 tanker trucks in the initial trial, carrying more than 6 million litres, around 38,000 barrels, over two days. Existing flows toward Ceyhan are around 200,000 barrels per day, so the road operation remains supplementary to pipeline exports.
The pilot extends Baghdad's effort to expand Ceyhan as an operating Mediterranean crude outlet as constraints in the Gulf increase the value of northern export capacity.
Türkiye-Iran Trade
Hormuz Disruption Pushes Iranian Commerce Toward Gürbulak
Iran is redirecting more trade toward its land borders as maritime disruption restricts conventional shipping, increasing pressure on the Gürbulak-Bazergan crossing.
Overland cargo through Türkiye has risen sharply, with longer truck queues and customs bottlenecks forming as Iranian importers and exporters shift volume away from Gulf routes. Road transport offers another outlet, although the crossing cannot absorb sea-borne volumes on the same scale.
EU-Türkiye
Ankara Presses for Full Treatment Under 'Made in Europe' Auto Rules
Türkiye, the United Kingdom and Japan are lobbying Brussels over provisions in the European Union's proposed Industrial Accelerator Act that could disadvantage vehicles assembled outside the bloc under "Made in Europe" rules.
Türkiye's Customs Union gives many Turkish-origin components privileged treatment. Assembly requirements tied specifically to production inside the Union could still exclude finished vehicles manufactured in Türkiye from some public-support and procurement schemes. That distinction directly affects Turkish plants supplying and assembling vehicles for the European market.
Türkiye Markets
Secondary Share Sales Reach $1.6 Billion as Gulf IPOs Slow
Secondary share sales in Türkiye reached about $1.6 billion by mid-September, nearly double last year's level, as institutional placements in Istanbul accelerated.
HSBC led seven transactions worth $552 million. Gulf initial public offering proceeds remained below $1.1 billion over the same period, pushing more investment-bank activity toward markets including Türkiye, Egypt and India. The transactions and regional comparison are examined here.
Hormuz
Shipping Remains Depressed as Saudi Crude Shifts Through Sohar
Saudi Aramco plans to route about 60 million barrels of September and October crude from Ras Tanura through ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar in Oman, according to traders.
The arrangement could restore Saudi Gulf exports to around 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day while reducing the need for destination vessels to operate through the most constrained part of the route. Shipping costs remain elevated and overall Hormuz traffic is still far below normal levels.
South Caucasus
Pashinyan Says Russian Base Is No Longer Vital to Armenia's Security
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Russia's 102nd Military Base in Gyumri no longer has vital importance for Armenia's security and that Yerevan would not object if Moscow decided to withdraw it.
Armenia has not asked Russia to leave and has not opened negotiations on removing the base. The statement follows Pashinyan's earlier warnings that forces in Russia were uncomfortable with the Armenia-Azerbaijan-Türkiye normalization track.
Gulf Security
Pakistan Hardens Saudi Defense Pledge as Taif Attack Hits Italian Jet
Pakistan's military spokesman, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, said Islamabad would go to "any extent" to defend Saudi sovereignty and described Pakistan's support as diplomatic and physical.
Saudi Arabia has not publicly invoked the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. Pakistan's wording nevertheless goes further than its earlier public descriptions of the pact.
An attack on Taif air base also hit an Italian F-2000 fighter stationed there. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said no Italian personnel were injured.
US Clears Possible $24.3 Billion Saudi F-35 Sale
The US State Department has cleared a possible $24.3 billion Foreign Military Sale covering 48 F-35 fighters and 49 engines for Saudi Arabia.
The notification now enters congressional review. No contract or delivery follows automatically from the State Department decision. Israel remains the only current F-35 operator in the Middle East.
Turkic States
Baku Meeting Expands Security Agenda Ahead of Ankara Summit
Security officials from the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) met in Baku on Sept. 17, placing terrorism, organized crime, narcotics trafficking, religious extremism, hybrid threats and critical infrastructure on the agenda.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said regular contacts among national security councils were contributing to a common security architecture. Türkiye and the TRNC were represented, with Prime Ministerial adviser Mehmet Ağa attending from the TRNC.
The Baku meeting joins several integration tracks moving toward the Oct. 30 Ankara summit, including policing, digital trade, mobility and defense-industry cooperation.
Lebanon
Paris Works on Security Options for the Post-UNIFIL Period
European and Arab military officials meeting in Paris are examining possible arrangements for southern Lebanon as the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) approaches the end of its current mission.
The discussions include a separate international or European-led presence and expanded training, equipment, intelligence and mentoring support for the Lebanese Armed Forces. No replacement force or final mandate has been agreed.
Balkans
Thaçi Verdict Keeps Kosovo Court Dispute Alive
Former Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi was sentenced to 25 years in prison after the Kosovo Specialist Chambers convicted him of war crimes including murder, torture and illegal detention during the 1998-99 conflict.
Thaçi denies wrongdoing and can appeal. The judgment triggered protests in Pristina and The Hague, renewing the political dispute in Kosovo over the legitimacy and record of the Hague-based court.
Bosphorus Read
New York will receive the Cyprus file without a common negotiating method or a completed package of confidence-building measures. Guterres is therefore dealing first with whether the work done in Nicosia is sufficient to support another 5+1 rather than with the substance of a new formal round.
Türkiye's financial authorities, meanwhile, are working through fund liquidations and two manipulation investigations while prosecutors pursue a separate international forex case. Secondary share placements have continued elsewhere in the market. Stress remains concentrated in identifiable fund structures even as other parts of Istanbul's equity market continue to attract institutional transactions.
The sharper regional change is occurring along transport routes. Southern Iraqi crude is being trucked north toward Ceyhan, more Iranian cargo is moving through Gürbulak and Saudi Aramco is preparing larger transfers off Sohar. Those routes cannot replace the Gulf's normal maritime capacity, but their growing use shows where governments and companies are trying to recover lost access. In the Black Sea, Ankara's civilian-shipping proposal now sits alongside another fatal strike on a merchant vessel.
Security developments are less uniform. Türkiye and Iran have put PKK-PJAK security questions directly into their bilateral talks, Greece has formalized its contribution to NATO ballistic-missile defense, and OTS security officials are widening their agenda before the Ankara summit. Pakistan's language on Saudi defense has also hardened, but the Mecca Pact has still not been publicly invoked.
Sources: United Nations, Capital Markets Board of Türkiye, Türkiye Ministry of National Defence, Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office, Turkish Agency Cyprus, Hellenic Parliament, Bulgarian Council of Ministers, Moldovan Ministry of Defence, Official Gazette of Türkiye, Azerbaijani Presidency, Italian Ministry of Defence, Radio Pakistan, Armenpress, Reuters, Associated Press, Financial Times, Anadolu Agency, Bosphorus News review and reporting.
Read Yesterday's brief: September 17.