By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk
Türkiye has circulated a written proposal to Russia and Ukraine aimed at protecting civilian shipping in the Black Sea, formalizing a diplomatic track Ankara had been pursuing for months before the document became public on Sept. 17.
A Turkish diplomat told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that Ankara had shared the text of a memorandum with Moscow and Kyiv in an effort to curb attacks on commercial vessels. The proposal draws on elements of the Black Sea Grain Initiative brokered by Türkiye and the United Nations in 2022.
Turkish Foreign Ministry records trace Ankara's search for a new Black Sea navigation arrangement to January 2025. By this summer, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was publicly discussing a moratorium covering maritime and energy targets, while Turkish diplomats worked separately with Russia and Ukraine on possible terms.
Ankara's track predates the memorandum
At his annual press conference on Jan. 10, 2025, Fidan said Türkiye was continuing diplomatic efforts to establish a new arrangement between Russia and Ukraine for the safety of navigation in the Black Sea.
At a Türkiye-Azerbaijan-Georgia foreign ministers' meeting on June 8, Fidan warned that mines and unmanned surface vessels could drift toward the Turkish Straits as the effects of the war spread beyond the immediate battlefield. "It is important that Turkish and other civilian vessels are not targeted," he said.
After talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on June 16, Fidan said attacks threatening navigational safety in the Black Sea were harming third countries. Türkiye had also raised measures intended to prevent incidents affecting its own interests in the region.
Ankara's public position became more specific on July 16, when Fidan appeared alongside Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and discussed a possible moratorium. Fidan said Türkiye had raised Black Sea navigation with Russia and Ukraine and argued that even without an immediate end to the wider war, certain categories of targets could be protected from attack.
"Our alternative proposals on these issues remain on the table for the parties' consideration," he said, identifying Black Sea security and energy security as areas where such an arrangement could apply.
Eight days later, after speaking with Fidan, Sybiha said the two ministers had discussed restoring freedom of navigation and protecting global food security.
From a moratorium proposal to a written draft
In an Aug. 8 interview published by the Turkish Foreign Ministry, Fidan said Türkiye had called on both parties to establish a mechanism for a moratorium on attacks. Ukraine had already raised such a request, he said, and Ankara had conveyed the issue to Russia.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Aug. 14 that Russia had received no formal Turkish proposal setting out such an arrangement. She also rejected what she described as half-measures in the Black Sea.
Fidan said on Aug. 31 that Türkiye had prepared a study and remained in contact with both sides, adding that Ankara hoped conditions could eventually support an arrangement resembling elements of the earlier grain agreement.
Russia continued to raise questions over verification. On Sept. 8, Lavrov said a moratorium covering attacks on ships carrying civilian goods would be difficult to monitor. Moscow has argued that any system would have to address the possibility of commercial vessels being used to transport military supplies.
By Sept. 15, Fidan was saying Ankara had proposals on the table and had received responses from the parties. Speaking in Baku, he said Turkish diplomats were working to bring the positions closer together and establish a basis for a possible understanding, although he did not say that Moscow and Kyiv had responded to the exact memorandum disclosed two days later.
Verification remains the obstacle
The Sept. 17 AFP report provided the clearest account so far of what Ankara's proposal is intended to address. The Turkish diplomat said the memorandum was inspired by the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative, after whose collapse in July 2023 Ukraine established an alternative maritime route running close to the Romanian and Bulgarian coasts.
Vessels using that route encounter a roughly four- to five-mile section where they leave territorial waters and enter international waters, according to the diplomat. Türkiye's proposal takes that exposed part of the passage into account.
The reference to the grain initiative does not mean Ankara is seeking to recreate the former Joint Coordination Centre or restore the 2022 arrangement in its original form. No public version of the memorandum has been released, leaving its provisions on notification, inspection, verification and enforcement unknown.
Russia has focused on how the civilian status and cargo of vessels could be verified, while Ukraine has pressed for protection of its maritime corridor and freedom of navigation.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has documented the deterioration in shipping security. On July 13, IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez condemned attacks on civilian merchant vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov and called on the parties to protect seafarers and international shipping. Ukraine's maritime route remains active, and on Sept. 14 the IMO announced a project funded by the United Kingdom, France and the European Union to support the safe and secure operation of Ukraine's Special Maritime Corridor.
The main obstacle is verification. Any agreement would need a credible way to establish which vessels are genuinely civilian and prevent the mechanism from being used to shield military cargo.
Sources: Türkiye's Foreign Ministry, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry, International Maritime Organization, AFP, Reuters, Interfax, Bosphorus News review and reporting.