By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk
Hakan Fidan says the Mecca Defense Alliance is preparing its headquarters and personnel structure as Türkiye offers technical military support to Saudi Arabia. Türkiye's fund crisis now has a six-month liquidation window, while Moscow and Kyiv have answered Ankara's Black Sea shipping proposal.
Mecca Defense Alliance | Fidan puts headquarters and Saudi military support on the agenda
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said work on the Türkiye-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan alliance's secretariat and military headquarters was almost complete, leaving personnel assignments and the start of headquarters operations as the next tasks.
Fidan said the three members were consulting over attacks on Saudi territory and infrastructure and that Türkiye could meet Saudi military needs in specific technical areas.
"We would have no difficulty meeting them," Fidan said.
The alliance took its first institutional decisions at the Strategic Political and Defense Committee meeting in İstanbul on Aug. 31. Fidan's latest remarks specify what implementation now involves.
Bosphorus News previously examined Saudi military requirements under the Mecca framework.
US President Donald Trump is due to hold talks with Gulf Cooperation Council states in New York on Sept. 22 over the Iran conflict. Iraq and Jordan will also join, while Egypt is likely to participate. Reports listing the expected participants do not name Türkiye or Pakistan.
Cyprus | Separate New York meetings follow the September 17 talks
Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman and Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides will meet United Nations officials separately in New York after their Sept. 17 talks ended without agreement on confidence-building measures, negotiating methodology or substantive issues.
The UN described their meeting as a "good discussion" and said both leaders would brief Secretary-General António Guterres on their work and the way forward.
Christodoulides said he presented 19 points covering substance, methodology and confidence-building measures. He will meet UN personal envoy María Ángela Holguín and Guterres during his New York visit.
Erhürman travels to New York on Sept. 23 for separate meetings with Guterres and Holguín. No joint meeting involving both leaders has been announced for UN week.
The meetings come after the seven-point agenda linked to Guterres' Cyprus initiative. The UN has said another 5+1 meeting will follow once sufficient preparation has been completed.
Türkiye Markets | Six-month liquidation window includes two MSCI reviews
The Capital Markets Board of Türkiye (CMB) has doubled the maximum liquidation period for 131 investment funds from three months to six, saying the extra time should allow portfolio assets to be sold under better market conditions.
İş Bankası is handling Tera Portföy funds, while Ziraat Bankası is responsible for funds belonging to A1 Capital, Atlas, Bulls, Hedef, Pardus and Pusula. Liquidation can finish before the six-month deadline.
Measured from the Sept. 17 decision, the process can run into March 2027. MSCI's Nov. 11, 2026 and Feb. 9, 2027 index reviews both fall inside that period.
MSCI warned in June that it may launch a consultation on the treatment of Türkiye and eligible Turkish securities if tangible and credible progress on shareholder transparency and coordinated trading is not evident by the November review. The low-float pricing weakness MSCI identified before the crisis therefore remains directly relevant.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office has asked the Financial Crimes Investigation Board (MASAK) for records on executives of Pusula Finans Holding, Tera Yatırım Menkul Değerler, Hedef Holding and Bulls Yatırım Menkul Değerler and their subsidiaries.
Prosecutors requested raw data on overseas money and crypto-asset transfers and all account inflows and outflows since 2024. The examination also covers first-degree relatives of fund managers.
Tera Portföy said redemption instructions rose within a short period to approximately TL300 billion in aggregate exit demand before restrictions on its Takasbank accounts stopped further payments.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said the affected funds account for about 10% of fund assets and that the problems do not constitute a systemic risk.
Black Sea | Moscow and Kyiv reply as Turkish shipowner files ICC complaint
Russia and Ukraine have answered Türkiye's proposal to reduce attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea, but Fidan said their positions remain difficult to reconcile.
"We have also received responses from the parties," Fidan said. Ankara is assessing the replies after examining why the previous arrangement failed. Fidan said keeping grain moving from Black Sea ports was Türkiye's first priority.
The responses move Türkiye's Black Sea shipping proposal into direct bargaining with Moscow and Kyiv.
A Turkish shipowner, surviving crew members and the family of sailor Savaş Çakar have also filed a complaint with the International Criminal Court over the July 22 drone strike on the Turkish-flagged bulk carrier Reyhan Sarı near Novorossiysk. Çakar, 54, was killed.
The complaint alleges that the crew accommodation was deliberately targeted and asks prosecutors to examine the strike under the Rome Statute. The filing does not mean the ICC has opened a case or determined responsibility.
Ukrainian forces announced strikes on 13 vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov on July 21-22 but did not identify Reyhan Sarı among them.
Yemen | Houthi official warns Türkiye and Pakistan against intervention
Houthi political bureau member Mohammed al-Bukhaiti has warned Türkiye and Pakistan against joining Saudi military operations in Yemen.
In an Iraqi television interview, al-Bukhaiti said the group would retaliate if either country intervened alongside Riyadh. Türkiye has announced no combat deployment to Yemen.
Pakistan's military spokesman, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, said Pakistan would go "to any extent" to defend Saudi Arabia and described Islamabad's security commitment as unconditional.
He did not say Riyadh had requested additional Pakistani forces or direct participation against the Houthis. Fidan's public offer has focused on possible Saudi needs in specific technical military areas.
Türkiye-US | Erdoğan arrives in New York ahead of planned Trump meeting
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan arrived in New York late on Sept. 20 for the 81st United Nations General Assembly and will address the General Debate on Sept. 22.
US Ambassador to Türkiye Tom Barrack said Erdoğan and Trump will meet in New York during UN week. Neither government has announced a date or time.
The S-400 and Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) dispute remains unresolved. Fidan said Ankara and Washington are working on "creative ideas" to address the S-400 issue and remove the sanctions, which continue to affect Türkiye's defense relationship with the United States. Türkiye also remains outside the F-35 program.
Iran adds sanctions, banking, aviation and regional security to the agenda. Russian energy ties, Black Sea negotiations and Washington's sanctions policy provide another set of unresolved issues.
Türkiye Military | Three exercises run from the Black Sea to the Caspian
Türkiye has military exercises underway across the Black Sea, Mediterranean and South Caucasus on Sept. 21.
Denizkurdu-I/2026 is running across the Black Sea, Sea of Marmara, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. Distinguished Observer Day will be held aboard TCG Anadolu on Sept. 24.
The Turkish Naval Forces also begin NATO Dynamic Guard-II/2026 in the Central Mediterranean. Hosted by Italy through Sept. 25, the exercise includes electronic warfare training and a Turkish naval unit assigned to Standing NATO Maritime Group 2.
In Azerbaijan, Power of Unity-2026 begins with forces from Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Uzbekistan. The exercise covers the Gizilgaya training center in the Karabakh economic region, the Garabaglar training center in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and the Boyuk Zira training area in Azerbaijan's sector of the Caspian Sea.
Personnel, combat equipment, naval and aviation assets and unmanned aerial vehicles are participating.
Libya | Kalın meets Zubi after Ankara's eastern Libya contacts
National Intelligence Organization chief İbrahim Kalın met Abdussalam Zubi, acting defense minister of Libya's Government of National Unity, in İstanbul.
Turkish security sources said the talks covered bilateral cooperation and efforts to unify Libya's political and military institutions.
The meeting follows Kalın's Sept. 10 talks with House of Representatives Speaker Aguila Saleh and High Council of State head Mohammed Takala. Ankara has now met senior figures from Libya's competing institutions within less than two weeks.
Hormuz | Vessel traffic remains below normal levels
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below prewar levels even as Saudi crude exports recover.
Kpler data cited by Reuters showed 12 commodity vessels crossing the strait over the weekend, down from 35 the previous weekend. Ships operating without Automatic Identification System transmissions are not fully captured by the visible count.
Saudi crude exports have climbed above 4 million barrels per day so far in September after falling to about 2.4 million in August. Thirteen tankers carrying 34 million barrels exited the strait in the week beginning Sept. 13, with Saudi Arabia accounting for roughly half of that volume.
Oil prices nevertheless remain well above the assumptions in Türkiye's new medium-term program.
Iran Aviation | Mahan Air suspension takes effect
Mahan Air's suspension of flights to Türkiye takes effect on Sept. 21, halting Tehran-İstanbul and Tehran-Ankara services until further notice. The final flights operated on Sept. 20.
Mahan Air said the cancellations followed a notification from Turkish aviation authorities. Türkiye has not publicly detailed the reason for the decision.
Greece Markets | FTSE Russell developed-market status takes effect
Greece's reclassification by FTSE Russell from Advanced Emerging to Developed Market status takes effect at the opening of trading on Sept. 21.
STOXX's separate developed-market classification also takes effect today. MSCI has approved the same reclassification but will implement it at the May 2027 Index Review.
Greek equities therefore enter the FTSE Russell and STOXX developed-market categories with today's session.
Bosphorus Read
The Mecca Defense Alliance is close to completing the structure needed to operate. Fidan says the secretariat and military headquarters are almost ready, with personnel assignments next, while Türkiye is prepared to meet specific Saudi technical military needs. The first direct Houthi warning to Türkiye and Pakistan has arrived before Ankara has announced any combat role.
The Black Sea proposal has also moved beyond the draft stage. Moscow and Kyiv have sent replies, leaving Ankara to work through positions Fidan describes as difficult to reconcile. The Reyhan Sarı complaint adds a legal track to a shipping crisis already affecting grain movements and insurance costs.
The fund liquidation decision has pushed the domestic market issue into March 2027 at the latest, placing two MSCI reviews inside the process. That matters because MSCI has already tied its November assessment of Türkiye to progress on shareholder transparency and coordinated trading.
Sources: Türkiye's Foreign Ministry, Türkiye's Ministry of National Defence, Presidency's Directorate of Communications, Capital Markets Board of Türkiye, Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office reporting, MSCI, United Nations Good Offices Mission in Cyprus, Republic of Cyprus Presidency, Azerbaijan's Ministry of Defense, Mahan Air, Euronext Athens, FTSE Russell, Reuters, Associated Press, Anadolu Agency, Bloomberg HT, Financial Times, Axios, The National, Arab News, Kpler, Bosphorus News review and reporting.
Read Yesterday's brief: Eastern Mediterranean Strategic Brief | September 20.