By Bosphorus News Energy Desk
Electricity consumption would climb sharply, but the ministry expects efficiency gains to moderate growth in overall energy demand.
On November 8, 2026, Türkiye is preparing to host COP31 in Antalya with a $500 billion energy investment roadmap unveiled days before the summit. By 2040, the government wants to expand installed electricity capacity from 123 gigawatts (GW) to 281 GW.
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar presented the National Energy 2040 vision at Istanbul's Presidential Dolmabahçe Office on November 5. It calls for more renewable and nuclear power, major grid investment and higher oil and natural gas production.
COP31 runs from November 9 to 20, with the World Leaders' Summit scheduled for November 11 and 12. Türkiye's Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change Minister Murat Kurum is the conference's president-designate. Australia's Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen will preside over negotiations.
Electricity Demand to Reach 680 TWh
Electricity would account for 36% of Türkiye's final energy consumption by 2040. Annual demand is projected to reach 680 terawatt-hours (TWh), up from 365 TWh in 2025. Under existing policies, the ministry had forecast 551 TWh for 2040.
Electric vehicles would account for 90 TWh a year. Data centres would use 55 TWh and electrolysers for hydrogen production 20 TWh, with another 8 TWh from heat pumps and 5 TWh from desalination.
Primary energy demand would still rise, from 171 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2025 to 199 million in 2040. That is below the 230 million projected under existing policies. The ministry targets a 40% reduction in primary energy intensity over the period and estimates cumulative energy savings at $240 billion.
Renewables, Grids and Nuclear Power
By 2040, renewables would account for 77% of installed power capacity, compared with 63% in 2025. That is a capacity measure, not a forecast of their share of electricity generation.
Solar capacity would grow from 26 GW to 112 GW and wind from 15 GW to 63 GW. The combined 175 GW target is more than four times the 2025 level. The ministry proposes annual auctions for at least 2 GW of renewable capacity, 6 GW of offshore wind development and upgrades to existing plants. It puts the cost of generation expansion at about $190 billion.
New generating capacity will also need a larger, more flexible grid. The ministry estimates $36 billion for transmission, $80 billion for distribution and $28 billion for storage and system flexibility. Its targets include 140 gigawatt-hours of battery storage, 6 GW of pumped hydropower and 15 GW of cross-border electricity interconnection capacity.
Türkiye's wind sector is already moving into battery storage, transmission equipment and offshore development, areas that will have to grow with the new power system.
Bayraktar is targeting 10 GW of nuclear capacity by 2040, combining the 4.8 GW Akkuyu plant with at least 5 GW of small modular reactors. He estimates nuclear could supply 11% of electricity demand. The government is also discussing further conventional plants at Sinop and in Thrace, but no final investment decision has been announced for either. Akkuyu's first reactor has yet to generate power; on October 27, Bayraktar said Türkiye was targeting its first electricity from the plant in 2027. Its construction delays and financing arrangements remain relevant to that timetable.
Oil, Gas and Coal in the 2040 Outlook
The ministry forecasts oil consumption falling from 993,000 barrels per day in 2025 to 718,000 in 2040 as transport electrifies. Annual natural gas use would ease from 59 billion cubic metres to 57 billion.
Bayraktar put current oil production from Türkiye and overseas operations at roughly 15% of the country's oil requirement. He separately said domestic natural gas production meets about 15% of consumption. By 2040, he wants production to cover the forecast oil requirement of 718,000 barrels per day and gas demand of 57 billion cubic metres a year, a combined target the ministry expresses as roughly 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Overseas output is included in the oil target and must not be confused with production inside Türkiye.
Coal supplies roughly one-third of Türkiye's electricity, according to energy think tank Ember, a figure reported by the Associated Press and Agence France-Presse. The 2040 presentation sets no timetable for phasing it out.
COP31's 2035 Electrification Pledge
The incoming COP31 presidency launched its "35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge" in September. It calls for electricity to reach 35% of global final energy consumption by 2035 and seeks more investment in grids and storage, alongside financing for electrification in buildings, transport and industry.
Türkiye's 36% target applies to one country in 2040. The COP31 pledge sets a worldwide goal five years earlier. Both concern electricity's share of final energy use; neither establishes how much of that electricity would come from low-emission sources.
Two figures in the national plan still need clarification. The presentation gives a 40% emissions reduction target without identifying a baseline year or reference scenario. The $500 billion is an estimate of investment required, not financing already secured. The published slides provide no funding timetable or method for calculating the emissions reduction.
Sources: Türkiye's Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, COP31 Presidency, Associated Press, Agence France-Presse, TRT Haber, Bosphorus News review and reporting.