EU Backs Montenegro 2028 Path as Balkan Security Tensions Rise

By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk

European Union leaders used the 5 June summit in Tivat to place Montenegro at the front of the Western Balkans accession track, while tensions around Serbia, Kosovo and outside influence pushed enlargement deeper into Europe's security agenda.

The summit, held at Porto Montenegro as the country marked the 20th anniversary of its independence, brought together European Council President António Costa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and leaders from the six Western Balkan partners.

Costa visited all six Western Balkan capitals before arriving in Tivat, including Belgrade and Tivat on 4 June. The tour gave the summit a wider political build-up than a standard regional meeting. Regional outlet N1 reported ahead of the gathering that no joint declaration was expected, but the absence of a final text did not weaken the signal from Brussels. The European Union is trying to close the distance between accession language and political control on the ground before Russia, China and local instability widen it further.

Von der Leyen described enlargement as a strategic investment for Europe, while Costa said the process had clear momentum. Montenegro was the immediate beneficiary of that message. The country has opened 33 negotiating chapters and provisionally closed 14, placing it ahead of the rest of the region in the formal accession process. Its 2028 membership target gained fresh visibility in Tivat, with European officials treating Montenegro as the most realistic near-term candidate.

Brussels has already moved beyond normal accession choreography. In April, the Council of the European Union set up an ad hoc working group to prepare a draft accession treaty for Montenegro before negotiations were completed. That early step gives Podgorica symbolic value for Brussels. If the European Union can bring one Western Balkan state across the line, it can show that enlargement has not become a permanent waiting room.

Serbia brought a sharper edge to the summit. Serbian intelligence officials advised President Aleksandar Vučić not to travel to Montenegro, citing security concerns linked to foreign intelligence activity and criminal networks. Montenegro also blocked the entry of 87 Serbian citizens arriving from Belgrade, saying they represented a security risk. Serbia responded with tighter controls on travelers from Montenegro, producing delays and a diplomatic quarrel just as European leaders were gathering on the Adriatic coast.

Vučić still attended the summit after saying he had promised Costa and von der Leyen that he would come. His presence exposed the hardest question in the European Union's Balkan policy. Serbia remains formally inside the accession process, but it continues to maintain close ties with Russia while facing deep suspicion from several neighbors and from parts of the European security establishment. The December 2025 Brussels declaration had already shown the split, with Serbia standing apart from the rest of the Western Balkan partners.

The Kosovo issue had already been pressing into Montenegro’s domestic politics before Tivat, with IBNAEU examining how calls to revoke Podgorica's recognition of Kosovo reflected pro-Serbian pressure, identity politics and Montenegro’s wider Euro-Atlantic orientation.

Kosovo added another layer to the regional calendar. The country is due to vote on 7 June in its third parliamentary election in 18 months, after another failed attempt to elect a president and the dissolution of parliament. Prime Minister Albin Kurti's Vetëvendosje is expected to lead, but not necessarily with enough seats to govern alone. The Democratic League of Kosovo is looking for a broader coalition path, while the election takes place under the continuing shadow of Kosovo-Serbia tensions and the NATO-led Kosovo Force mission.

The timing keeps NATO and the European Union in the same Balkan frame. Bosphorus News recently examined how the Kosovo election and the Kosovo Force mission place Türkiye, Serbia and NATO inside the same security calendar. That issue was already visible in the Turkish Kosovo Force commander's contact with Serbia's army chief, which showed how Türkiye's role in the region extends beyond diplomatic language.

The Tivat summit fits a shift already visible in NATO and European Union military planning. The Western Balkans are increasingly treated as a connected security front, where accession policy, organized crime, foreign influence, military mobility and Kosovo-Serbia tensions cannot be separated cleanly. Bosphorus News previously traced that shift in its examination of how NATO and European Union military chiefs have reframed the Western Balkans as a single security front.

The Western Balkans are not a passive neighborhood for Ankara, nor a region watched from outside Europe's accession debate. Türkiye has built diplomatic, defense, training and trade channels across the region while maintaining relations with Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro. In January 2026, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hosted the second Balkan Peace Platform foreign ministers' meeting in Istanbul, bringing together the six Western Balkan foreign ministers and placing Türkiye inside the region's political conversation before the Tivat summit season began.

Türkiye's role in the Balkans now runs through several channels at once. Ankara still uses dialogue and political contact, but its position also rests on defense ties, NATO roles and bilateral economic relationships. Its support for Kosovo has become part of that pattern, as Bosphorus News detailed in its report on Türkiye's defense support for Balkan security. At the same time, Türkiye continues to manage relations with Serbia, where political contact with Ankara remains important despite disputes over arms sales and Kosovo.

Ankara's relevance does not depend on a seat at the Tivat table. The European Union is trying to pull the Western Balkans into a clearer accession lane, Montenegro is being positioned as the first test case, Serbia remains the difficult file, and Kosovo's election keeps NATO's security role active. Türkiye runs through those files through Balkan diplomacy, defense relationships and its position inside NATO.

Tivat compressed the region's contradictions into one summit frame. Montenegro's accession path, Serbia's balancing act, Kosovo's election and European security planning now move through the same narrow Balkan space. Türkiye cannot set the European Union's enlargement timetable, but it remains close enough to the region's political and military arteries to shape the security environment around it.

***Sources: Council of the European Union, European Commission, Associated Press, Reuters, The Guardian, European Western Balkans, N1, Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs, IBNAEU and Bosphorus News reporting.