By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk
Israel and the Republic of Cyprus signed a naval procurement deal, and Eni moved ahead with contracts for the Cronos gas field.
On October 26, 2026, five governments and the European Union challenged Libya's approval of its maritime pact with Türkiye at the United Nations. Iraqi forces took a strategic post in Sinjar, and Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan met Iran in Tehran ahead of a Turkish parliamentary review of their defense treaty. Egypt separately authorized possible military assistance to Saudi Arabia.
Eastern Mediterranean & Regional Security
Greece, EU and Four States Reject Libya's Türkiye Maritime Vote
Greece, Egypt, the Republic of Cyprus, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union rejected Libya's October 20 approval of the 2019 maritime memorandum with Türkiye. Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis delivered their joint statement at the UN in New York on October 26, calling the pact "null and void." President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan defended the agreement after a Cabinet meeting. The six-party declaration was a diplomatic statement, not a Security Council decision. Libya's vote left the pact's recorded December 2019 entry-into-force date unchanged, along with the dispute over third states' maritime rights.
Iraqi Troops Take Sinjar Post as Yazidi Force Agrees to Integrate
Iraqi federal troops took a strategic position on Mount Sinjar on October 26 as Baghdad began integrating the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS), a Yazidi force linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), into state security institutions. The YBS and Sinjar Women's Units declared a combined strength of 4,165 fighters; Baghdad has not verified that number as completed transfers. The wider handover remains unfinished, and no date has been announced for the transfer of the Turkish camp at Bashiqa-Zilkan.
Mecca Pact Signatories Meet Iran and Agree to Continue Talks
National Intelligence Organization chief İbrahim Kalın joined Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman and Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir for talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on October 26. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also attended. After the four-country meeting, the participants agreed to continue consultations on regional security. Iran remains outside the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, which Türkiye's parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee is scheduled to examine on October 27. Any Turkish deployment abroad would require separate parliamentary authorization.
Egyptian Parliament Authorizes Sisi to Defend Saudi Arabia
Egypt's House of Representatives voted on October 26 to authorize President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to take measures, in coordination with Riyadh, to defend Saudi territory, sovereignty and holy sites against external attack. The measure passed by a two-thirds majority after closed parliamentary sessions. No Egyptian troop deployment or formal Saudi request was announced. Egypt is outside the Türkiye–Saudi Arabia–Pakistan Mecca Pact.
Cyprus, Energy & Maritime Jurisdiction
Israel and Republic of Cyprus Sign Offshore Patrol Vessel Agreement
Israel and the Republic of Cyprus signed an agreement on October 26 for an offshore patrol vessel built by Israel Shipyards and equipped with Rafael naval systems. The contract also covers upgrades to the Republic of Cyprus patrol vessel IOANNIDES. The two defense ministries cited patrol, surveillance and search-and-rescue missions. They disclosed neither a price nor a delivery date.
Eni Signs Up to $1.8 Billion in Cronos Gas Development Contracts
Eni, operator of the Block 6 venture with TotalEnergies, signed engineering, construction, installation and drilling contracts worth up to $1.8 billion for the Cronos gas field off the Republic of Cyprus on October 26. Both partners took the final investment decision on July 28. The Cronos development plan envisages moving gas through Egypt for processing and export, with production targeted for the first half of 2028. The $1.8 billion figure is a contract ceiling, not expenditure already incurred.
Athens Says GSI Survey Permissions Are Greek, Notification Separate
Greek government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis said on October 26 that applications for the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) surveys had gone to Greek authorities, not Türkiye. He distinguished permission from the navigational notice required for offshore work, but did not say whether Athens or the French contractor would send that notice. No confirmed date has been announced for the return of the survey vessel.
Cyprus Leaders Set October 27 Talks on Crossings and Varosha
Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman and Republic of Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides are due to meet under UN auspices on October 27 at 11 a.m. Meetings involving bicommunal technical committees are also scheduled. New crossing points and the Greek Cypriot proposal to combine arrangements for fenced-off Varosha with EU-administered operations at Famagusta port remain disputed. UN envoy María Ángela Holguín is expected on the island on October 29, ahead of planned trilateral talks on November 9.
Turkish Cypriot Presidency Details Brussels Contacts on Citizenship and Schengen
Turkish Cypriot Presidency Undersecretary Mehmet Dânâ held talks in Brussels with EU institutions and member-state representatives, according to a presidency announcement published on October 24. The contacts addressed the rights of children of mixed marriages, citizenship applications, the Republic of Cyprus's Schengen process and confidence-building measures. The presidency announced no agreement with EU institutions.
Üstel Discusses Prospective TL30 Billion 2027 Deal in Ankara
Turkish Cypriot Prime Minister Ünal Üstel met Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Defense Minister Yaşar Güler in Ankara on October 26. Üstel's office said preparations for a 2027 economic and financial cooperation agreement involving approximately TL30 billion were discussed with Yılmaz. The figure remains prospective. The Fidan and Güler meetings covered Cyprus policy and security cooperation, with no new deployment decision announced.
Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Raises Türkiye's Gas Survey NAVTEX with EU
Republic of Cyprus Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos told public broadcaster RIK on October 26 that his government had contacted the EU over Türkiye's NAVTEX for surveys toward northern Cyprus. The notice names four vessels and covers October 26 through December 31. Kombos described a diplomatic approach to Brussels; no EU countermeasure has been announced. The start of the notified period is not confirmation that the vessels began surveying.
Balkans & Defense
Student-Backed List Wins Majority of Votes in Serbia
Serbia's election commission count covering 8,155 polling stations put the student-backed list at 52.73% in the October 25 early parliamentary election, against 39.15% for Aleksandar Vučić's United Serbia list. Public broadcaster RTS reported the figures on October 26. Vučić, who resigned as president in September, conceded defeat. Final seat allocations and the formation of a government remain pending.
ASELSAN Signs €523 Million Air and Missile Defense Development Deal
ASELSAN announced a €523 million contract with Türkiye's Presidency of Defense Industries on October 26 to develop a next-generation air and missile defense system. The disclosure gave no delivery schedule or full system configuration. The contract is separate from the €2.46 billion hybrid air defense procurement agreements announced earlier in October.
ASELSAN KGK-84 Completes F-16 Qualification Firing
ASELSAN reported a successful qualification-range firing of its KGK-84 wing-assisted guidance kit from an F-16 at Sinop. The kit gives a 2,000-pound-class bomb guided, gliding capability. ASELSAN lists a range of up to 100 kilometers, although it did not disclose the distance flown during this test or a date for operational service.
Türkiye and EU Parliamentary Delegations Discuss SAFE and Customs Union
The Türkiye–EU Joint Parliamentary Committee convened its 82nd meeting on October 26, ending a gap of about two years. Turkish co-chair İsmail Emrah Karayel called for Türkiye to participate in EU defense programs, including Security Action for Europe (SAFE). Delegates also discussed customs union modernization, visas and regional security. The meeting produced no announced decision on SAFE participation or formal customs union negotiations.
Türkiye | Capital Markets & Economy
SPK Suspends Tera and Pusula Portfolio Activities, Expands Liquidation
Türkiye's Capital Markets Board (SPK) temporarily suspended Tera Portföy and Pusula Portföy's capital-markets activities on October 26 and expanded liquidation to eligible funds previously outside the process. Türkiye İş Bankası was appointed for Tera's funds and Ziraat Bankası for Pusula's. The decisions establish a liquidation procedure, but the amount recoverable for investors has not been published. The Turkish Cypriot central bank separately said its banks were operating normally and reported no direct connection with the proceedings in Türkiye.
SPK Raises Qualified Investor Asset Threshold to TL50 Million
In a separate October 26 decision, SPK raised the financial-assets threshold for elective professional clients from TL10 million to TL50 million and the transaction-volume threshold from TL5 million to TL25 million. It also revised related qualified-investor rules and removed an earlier exception for real estate and venture capital investment funds. The thresholds concern specified professional-client and qualified-investor categories, rather than ordinary retail stock trading.
Former SPK Official and Businessman Remanded in Fund Investigation
Former SPK department head Erman Çete and businessman Nusret Altınbaş were remanded in custody on October 26 in the capital-markets investigation. Türkiye Sigorta deputy general manager Gürol Sami Özer, detained on October 25, was also remanded. No court has convicted the suspects in these proceedings, and authorities have yet to publish an audited tally of money returned to affected investors.
Central Bank Exempts Certain Bond-Repayment Loans from Credit Cap
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) exempted certain lira-denominated loans from commercial-credit growth restrictions when the borrowing is used to repay domestic lira bonds issued by non-bank companies and maturing by the end of 2026. The exception is limited to qualifying repayments. The bank did not link the measure to the separate fund investigation.
Türkiye Plans $100 Billion in Grid Investment Under 2040 Vision
Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on October 26 that the National Energy 2040 program would envisage approximately $100 billion in electricity transmission and distribution investment. The program is scheduled for presentation in Istanbul on November 5. The proposed spending responds to growing renewable capacity, electric vehicles, industry and data-center demand; the money has not been committed under a single funded construction program.
Balkans & Red Sea
Bulgaria Heads to November 1 Presidential Runoff
Bulgaria's Central Election Commission reported 34.76% for incumbent President Iliana Yotova and 31.95% for former caretaker premier Andrey Gyurov in the October 25 first round. Kostadin Kostadinov came third with approximately 12.55%. Turnout was about 22%. Yotova and Gyurov will contest the second round on November 1.
Houthis Claim Saudi Oil and Airport Attacks; Coalition Reports Interception
Yemen's Houthi movement claimed on October 26 to have attacked Saudi Arabia's east–west oil pumping stations and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. Saudi authorities had not confirmed strikes on those targets at publication time. The Saudi-led coalition separately reported intercepting a missile headed toward Riyadh and destroying missile-launch facilities in Yemen. Damage to the named oil sites and airport remains unverified.
Bosphorus News Reading
Libya's eastern-based parliament has reversed its 2020 rejection of the maritime memorandum with Türkiye. That leaves the authorities in Tripoli and eastern Libya publicly supporting the same agreement, a change in Libyan politics with consequences for negotiations. Greece, Egypt and the Republic of Cyprus still dispute the maritime claims. The UN Treaty Collection records the agreement's entry into force in December 2019, but registration cannot determine where a third state's continental shelf or exclusive economic zone begins. Nor can the declaration delivered in New York invalidate the memorandum by itself. A challenge to a specific survey, licence or drilling operation would bring the competing legal positions into a more concrete dispute. There is diplomatic agreement within Libya on the pact; there is no agreed maritime boundary with its opponents.
On Mount Sinjar, Baghdad can already point to a transfer of territory under military control. What happens to the fighters is a longer operation. The YBS says it and the Sinjar Women's Units have 4,165 members, but no comparable figure exists for those accepted into Iraqi institutions, assigned commanders or placed on state payrolls. The September arrangement with Türkiye also connects restoration of Iraqi authority in Sinjar to a phased handover of the Bashiqa-Zilkan camp. That Turkish withdrawal has its own terms and timetable. The test of Baghdad's control will reach beyond the mountain position: whether armed units answer to a single chain of command and whether the new security arrangements protect Yazidi communities without reopening the disputes left by the 2020 Sinjar agreement.
Saudi Arabia now has several routes to military assistance, each subject to different rules. The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement treats an attack on one of its three parties as an attack on all; Türkiye has yet to approve the treaty through parliament, and sending Turkish troops abroad would require a separate mandate. Egypt's parliament has taken a different step, authorizing President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to defend Saudi Arabia against external attack. Neither decision identifies troops to be sent or a mission to undertake. In Tehran, the three pact signatories spoke with Iranian officials and agreed to continue consultations. Riyadh has brought its defense partners into direct talks with Tehran even as the pact proceeds through Türkiye's approval process. The scope of any actual military response will depend on orders, deployment terms and domestic law, not the breadth of the diplomatic language.
The contracts signed for Cronos place it ahead of two other offshore schemes being discussed around Cyprus. Eni and TotalEnergies have taken a final investment decision, and Eni has signed development contracts, with Egypt designated as the processing and export route. First production, however, is still projected for 2028. The Great Sea Interconnector survey campaign has yet to resume, and Athens has not identified who will send Türkiye the navigational notice. Türkiye's proposed gas connection toward northern Cyprus has a NAVTEX listing four vessels and an operating window, but its construction contracts and final route remain undisclosed. These projects will face different commercial and legal obstacles. Their schedules cannot be judged from the number of announcements made by governments.
The Israel–Republic of Cyprus patrol vessel agreement is easier to measure. It covers construction of a ship and improvements to an existing one. Price, delivery date and final installed equipment were not made public, so the contract says little yet about when the Republic of Cyprus will have more ships ready for patrol duty. Reading the deal as an immediate answer to the Libya maritime vote would also require evidence of a connection that neither government has provided. Procurement can be documented today; the operational effect belongs to the delivery and integration stage.
Tuesday's Cyprus leaders' meeting brings several proposals that are often grouped as confidence-building measures but demand different decisions. Varosha concerns the status and administration of a fenced-off area. The Famagusta port proposal would involve trade access and an EU role, with the Turkish Cypriot side disputing what rights it could obtain. Crossing points are managed through a separate bicommunal process. Citizenship claims by children of mixed marriages and the Republic of Cyprus's Schengen plans depend on legal rules that the two leaders cannot alter by a joint announcement. Mehmet Dânâ's Brussels contacts have brought some of those questions directly to EU officials, though no change in policy has been announced. A deal on a crossing would be progress on movement across the Green Line; it would leave the port and citizenship questions to be resolved on their own terms.
The Balkan election results require two different clocks. In Serbia, the student-backed list has won a majority of votes in the latest count and Vučić has conceded. The allocation of seats and formation of a government must still follow. Bulgaria has yet to elect its president: Yotova and Gyurov face a runoff on November 1 after a first round marked by turnout of roughly 22%. Türkiye's relations with the two neighbors will continue through existing institutions as those political processes run their course. Treating a projected Serbian majority as a government, or Bulgaria's first-round leader as the eventual president, would get ahead of the electoral record.
The financial and industrial announcements in Türkiye put several kinds of state action side by side. ASELSAN has secured a development contract and completed a qualification firing, with delivery and service-entry dates still to be established. A proposed $100 billion grid program addresses the infrastructure needed alongside 80.3 GW of installed renewable power, but funding and construction remain future steps. In capital markets, SPK has moved against two portfolio managers and tightened access rules for qualified investors; courts have remanded suspects, and the central bank has made a limited change to bond-refinancing credit rules. The fund investigation can ultimately be judged by identifiable assets, legal claims and payments reaching investors. A loan exception for corporate bond maturities cannot be presented as part of that recovery effort without evidence that the authorities intended such a link.
Sources: Hellenic Republic Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Libyan House of Representatives, United Nations Treaty Collection, Iraqi Security Media Cell, Turkish Cypriot Presidency, Turkish Cypriot Prime Ministry, Republic of Cyprus Presidency and Ministries of Defence and Energy, Greek Government Spokesperson, Türkiye's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Turkish Grand National Assembly, Egyptian House of Representatives, Saudi and Iranian official statements, Israel Ministry of Defense, Eni, Public Disclosure Platform, Capital Markets Board of Türkiye, Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, Serbia Republic Electoral Commission, Bulgaria Central Election Commission, Cyprus News Agency, Türk Ajansı Kıbrıs, RIK, RTS, Anadolu Agency, TRT Haber, Reuters, Associated Press, Bosphorus News review and reporting.
Read Yesterday's brief: Eastern Mediterranean Strategic Brief | October 25, 2026: US Rebukes Libya Pact as Black Sea Attacks Mount.