By Bosphorus News Research Desk
Study: The impact of the Montreux convention on NATO regarding the security of the black sea region
Institution: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (Springer Nature); Hanefi Yazıcı, Bandırma Onyedi Eylül University, and Rüştü Salim Savaş Biçer, Istanbul Nişantaşı University
Date: October 9, 2026
Region / File: Black Sea / Montreux Convention and NATO maritime security
Research note: A study by Hanefi Yazıcı and Rüştü Salim Savaş Biçer calls for updating the Montreux Convention in response to new Black Sea security threats. It credits the treaty's limits on naval movements with reducing escalation risks, while arguing that cyber threats, cognitive warfare and risks to energy infrastructure require a broader framework. The authors do not explain why those threats require changes to the treaty itself.
Published in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, the paper draws on realism, regional security theory and Jennifer Mitzen's concept of ontological security. In that reading, Montreux provides continuity to Türkiye's sovereign authority over the Straits. The authors describe their method as literature review, comparative analysis and process tracing, examining 1936, the post-Soviet period, Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. They propose no specific amendment and acknowledge that reopening negotiations could weaken Türkiye's legal position and invite pressure from Russia.
Strategic relevance: Montreux sets conditions for passage through the Turkish Straits according to vessel type, the flag state's Black Sea coastal status and the circumstances of peace or war. NATO membership is not a category under the treaty. Tonnage limits and the 21-day maximum stay for warships of non-Black Sea states constrain the alliance's naval options while making outside deployments more predictable.
Changing those rules would require agreement beyond Ankara. Article 29 requires one other contracting party to support proposals concerning Articles 14 or 18, and two for other amendments. A conference generally decides by unanimity, with special voting rules for Articles 14 and 18. The study identifies no route for its proposed reform or means of protecting Türkiye's existing rights in negotiations.
Ankara has shown no intention of reopening the convention. On July 20, its 90th anniversary, the Foreign Ministry reaffirmed Türkiye's commitment to applying it. During the July 7–8 NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye, Romania and Bulgaria agreed to extend their joint mine-countermeasures mission to critical underwater infrastructure. They amended their own memorandum, leaving Montreux untouched. The expanded role has yet to be tested in operations.
Bosphorus News reading: The study is strongest when it recognises that restrictions on naval access can also reduce escalation risks. Montreux limits the scale and duration of deployments by non-Black Sea states, making an outside naval presence easier for coastal powers to anticipate. The ontological-security argument adds another dimension: Türkiye treats the convention as a durable basis for its authority over the Straits. The implications of that argument are left underexplored, especially given the authors' call to change the treaty.
The methodological weakness lies in the handling of historical cases. The paper identifies major turning points but rarely traces a specific treaty rule through a government decision to an observable security outcome. The absence of a new dataset is not a problem in itself; rigorous documentary research does not require one. What matters is how evidence is selected and tested, and that process is not made clear. Treaty texts and NATO strategy documents are named in the methodology but are not individually identified in the bibliography. An extensive discussion of artificial intelligence, the metaverse and cognitive warfare never establishes which passage rule those threats have rendered inadequate.
The paper also invokes TANAP and TAP as part of Türkiye's role in European energy supply. Neither pipeline is governed by Montreux's rules for ships transiting the Turkish Straits. Their importance does not establish a need for treaty amendment. That case would require the authors to identify a specific operational obstacle and explain why existing agreements or military coordination cannot overcome it.
The Türkiye–Romania–Bulgaria mission offers a practical comparison. Its new underwater-infrastructure duties were agreed under a separate memorandum, without reopening Montreux. An earlier Research Watch assessment of Carnegie Europe's Montreux study examined Ankara's preference for security arrangements led by Black Sea coastal states. These examples do not show that every emerging threat can be managed under current rules, and the mission's new duties remain untested. The authors themselves warn that renegotiation could weaken Türkiye's position, yet offer no assessment of the likely costs and gains. The study broadens the debate over Black Sea security. Its case for revising Montreux remains incomplete.
Read the study: The impact of the Montreux convention on NATO regarding the security of the black sea region. DOI: 10.1057/s41599-026-09391-2
Sources: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits (1936), Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Romanian Ministry of National Defence, Bosphorus News review and reporting.
A study urges a Montreux update for NATO's Black Sea security needs but leaves the terms and risks of revision unresolved
By Bosphorus News Research Desk
Study: The impact of the Montreux convention on NATO regarding the security of the black sea region
Institution: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (Springer Nature); Hanefi Yazıcı, Bandırma Onyedi Eylül University, and Rüştü Salim Savaş Biçer, Istanbul Nişantaşı University
Date: October 9, 2026
Region / File: Black Sea / Montreux Convention and NATO maritime security
Research note: A study by Hanefi Yazıcı and Rüştü Salim Savaş Biçer calls for updating the Montreux Convention in response to new Black Sea security threats. It credits the treaty's limits on naval movements with reducing escalation risks, while arguing that cyber threats, cognitive warfare and risks to energy infrastructure require a broader framework. The authors do not explain why those threats require changes to the treaty itself.
Published in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, the paper draws on realism, regional security theory and Jennifer Mitzen's concept of ontological security. In that reading, Montreux provides continuity to Türkiye's sovereign authority over the Straits. The authors describe their method as literature review, comparative analysis and process tracing, examining 1936, the post-Soviet period, Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. They propose no specific amendment and acknowledge that reopening negotiations could weaken Türkiye's legal position and invite pressure from Russia.
Strategic relevance: Montreux sets conditions for passage through the Turkish Straits according to vessel type, the flag state's Black Sea coastal status and the circumstances of peace or war. NATO membership is not a category under the treaty. Tonnage limits and the 21-day maximum stay for warships of non-Black Sea states constrain the alliance's naval options while making outside deployments more predictable.
Changing those rules would require agreement beyond Ankara. Article 29 requires one other contracting party to support proposals concerning Articles 14 or 18, and two for other amendments. A conference generally decides by unanimity, with special voting rules for Articles 14 and 18. The study identifies no route for its proposed reform or means of protecting Türkiye's existing rights in negotiations.
Ankara has shown no intention of reopening the convention. On July 20, its 90th anniversary, the Foreign Ministry reaffirmed Türkiye's commitment to applying it. During the July 7–8 NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye, Romania and Bulgaria agreed to extend their joint mine-countermeasures mission to critical underwater infrastructure. They amended their own memorandum, leaving Montreux untouched. The expanded role has yet to be tested in operations.
Bosphorus News reading: The study is strongest when it recognises that restrictions on naval access can also reduce escalation risks. Montreux limits the scale and duration of deployments by non-Black Sea states, making an outside naval presence easier for coastal powers to anticipate. The ontological-security argument adds another dimension: Türkiye treats the convention as a durable basis for its authority over the Straits. The implications of that argument are left underexplored, especially given the authors' call to change the treaty.
The methodological weakness lies in the handling of historical cases. The paper identifies major turning points but rarely traces a specific treaty rule through a government decision to an observable security outcome. The absence of a new dataset is not a problem in itself; rigorous documentary research does not require one. What matters is how evidence is selected and tested, and that process is not made clear. Treaty texts and NATO strategy documents are named in the methodology but are not individually identified in the bibliography. An extensive discussion of artificial intelligence, the metaverse and cognitive warfare never establishes which passage rule those threats have rendered inadequate.
The paper also invokes TANAP and TAP as part of Türkiye's role in European energy supply. Neither pipeline is governed by Montreux's rules for ships transiting the Turkish Straits. Their importance does not establish a need for treaty amendment. That case would require the authors to identify a specific operational obstacle and explain why existing agreements or military coordination cannot overcome it.
The Türkiye–Romania–Bulgaria mission offers a practical comparison. Its new underwater-infrastructure duties were agreed under a separate memorandum, without reopening Montreux. An earlier Research Watch assessment of Carnegie Europe's Montreux study examined Ankara's preference for security arrangements led by Black Sea coastal states. These examples do not show that every emerging threat can be managed under current rules, and the mission's new duties remain untested. The authors themselves warn that renegotiation could weaken Türkiye's position, yet offer no assessment of the likely costs and gains. The study broadens the debate over Black Sea security. Its case for revising Montreux remains incomplete.
Read the study: The impact of the Montreux convention on NATO regarding the security of the black sea region. DOI: 10.1057/s41599-026-09391-2
Sources: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits (1936), Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Romanian Ministry of National Defence, Bosphorus News review and reporting.
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