By Bosphorus News Economy Desk
Türkiye's second-quarter growth came in at 2.3 percent on Monday morning. Brent crossed $90 the same day. The new three-year plan has to hold both numbers.
Türkiye's Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2027-2029 is due in the first week of September, with Reuters reporting a September 7 release date. Officials are closing the forecasts after the United States struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island and Iran retaliated against bases used by American forces in Jordan, bringing direct US-Iran fighting back to the Strait of Hormuz after a month-long lull.
Brent crude futures were trading at $90.45 a barrel at 1306 GMT on Monday, up 2.7 percent after reaching $91.52 earlier in the session. West Texas Intermediate was at $85.71.
The government's existing program assumes Brent at $65.1 in 2027. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has already moved its own assumption to $76.4.
US forces struck two launchers on Larak Island on Sunday after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel were observed preparing rockets carrying sea mines for the strait. It was the first known American strike on Iranian territory since late July.
The IRGC said it retaliated with ballistic missiles against the King Hussein and Al Azraq bases in Jordan. Jordan's armed forces said eight missiles entering its airspace were intercepted but did not confirm that either base had been hit.
Iran's military separately said it had sent explosive drones against US personnel and helicopters at Al Minhad Air Base in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE Defense Ministry denied reports that the base had been targeted by missiles. Emirati authorities separately confirmed that air defenses intercepted an Iranian drone over UAE territorial waters.
The Strait of Hormuz carried roughly a fifth of global oil supplies before the war. Visible commodity-vessel transits fell to as few as five a day over the weekend, according to Reuters.
Ankara's $65 Oil Baseline
The 2026-2028 MTP, published last September, assumes Brent will average $65 this year and $65.1 in 2027. For next year it projects a $62.5 billion energy import bill, a $20.5 billion current-account deficit and year-end inflation of 9 percent.
This year's figures have already moved far from some of the program's assumptions. Annual consumer inflation stood at 31.75 percent in July, while the current MTP has a 16 percent year-end target for 2026. The CBRT now forecasts 28 percent.
Growth is also running below the government's existing path. The Turkish Statistical Institute said Monday that gross domestic product expanded 2.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, below the 2.9 percent median estimate in a Reuters poll and down from a revised 2.6 percent in the first quarter.
The current MTP projects 3.8 percent growth for 2026. Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said Monday that full-year growth could finish somewhat below that figure.
Energy provides the shortest route from Hormuz into Ankara's forecasts.
Türkiye paid $5.83 billion for energy imports in July, 13.1 percent more than a year earlier. Crude oil import volumes, meanwhile, rose just 0.3 percent to 2.93 million tonnes. The energy import category is broader than crude oil, covering natural gas, refined products and other mineral fuels, so the two series cannot be read as a direct price-volume decomposition.
The Central Bank Has Already Repriced the War
The CBRT revised its oil assumptions on August 13.
In its third Inflation Report of the year, the bank lowered its average 2026 oil-price assumption from $89.4 to $87.8 after crude retreated from earlier wartime highs. For 2027 it moved the other way, raising the figure from $75.4 to $76.4.
Governor Fatih Karahan tied the 2027 revision directly to "the course of the war." The 2026 estimate incorporated realized prices and an assumption that crude would gradually decline over the remainder of the year.
Karahan also identified a longer period of elevated oil and natural gas prices among the bank's main upside risks. Diesel refining margins, natural gas and non-energy commodity prices contributed to the two-point increase in the CBRT's 2026 inflation forecast to 28 percent.
Its 2027 inflation forecast remains 15 percent, six points above the figure in the government's current three-year program.
One session above $90 does not invalidate an annual assumption of $87.8. The US Energy Information Administration, whose August forecast preceded the latest Larak exchange, expects Brent to average about $87 in 2026 and fall to $69 in 2027 as production and inventories recover.
Oil had fallen sharply the previous week as hopes grew that negotiations could improve shipping conditions through Hormuz. The Larak strike and Iranian response sent Brent back above $90 before Ankara published the assumptions it plans to use for the next three years.
Economist Mahfi Eğilmez said earlier in the conflict that, as a rough estimate, each $10 increase in oil prices would add about $2.5 billion to Türkiye's current-account deficit and around one percentage point to inflation. The eventual effect would depend on how long higher prices persisted and on other economic variables.
The 2027 Gap
The sharper comparison is now next year.
Ankara's existing program pairs $65.1 Brent with a $62.5 billion energy import bill, a $20.5 billion current-account deficit and 9 percent inflation in 2027. The CBRT has already moved its oil assumption to $76.4 and its inflation forecast to 15 percent.
Monday's $90 price does not need to become the government's new baseline. Officials still have to decide how much of the war premium they expect to survive into 2027 and what that means for energy imports, inflation and the current account.
August inflation is due on September 3. Reuters says the new MTP will be announced on September 7, and the CBRT's Monetary Policy Committee meets three days later.
By then, Ankara will have put a price on how much of the Hormuz war it expects to carry into 2027.
Sources: United States Central Command, Jordanian Armed Forces, United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defense, Turkish Statistical Institute, Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, Presidency of Strategy and Budget, US Energy Information Administration, CNBC-e, Reuters, Anadolu Agency, Bosphorus News review and reporting.