By Bosphorus News Economy Desk
Türkiye's 2026 hazelnut estimates are split between ministry-linked national totals reported at around 704,000 to 705,000 tons and the Black Sea Hazelnut and Products Exporters' Association's (KFMİB) July estimate of 805,246 tons.
The Turkish Statistical Institute's (TÜİK) May forecast of 715,350 tons is close to the ministry-linked figures. Under the Official Statistics Program, however, the Agriculture Ministry collects, processes and prepares the data TÜİK publishes, so that proximity is not an independent institutional cross-check.
The national commission total is not uniform across published accounts. Giresun İleri reported 704,941 tons on July 29, and Ekonomim carried the same number a day later. Ordu Olay reported a different national total of 704,195 tons on July 31. No consolidated ministry table located by Bosphorus News resolves the difference.
TÜİK's May Forecast Uses Agriculture Ministry Data
TÜİK published "Crop Production 1st Estimation, 2026" on May 21 and forecast hazelnut production at 715,350 tons, 62.2 percent above the previous year.
The 704,941-ton figure reported from the later commission work is 10,409 tons below that forecast. Both are institutionally tied to the Agriculture Ministry, although the available material does not show that the May and July calculations used the same dataset or method. KFMİB's 805,246-ton estimate comes from a separate field study.
TÜİK recorded 441,000 tons of hazelnut production in 2025, down 38.5 percent from 717,000 tons in 2024. A 704,941-ton crop would mean an increase of about 59.9 percent from last year; KFMİB's estimate would put the rise at about 82.6 percent.
None of the 2026 figures is a final harvested-production total.
Ordu Accounts for Roughly 68,000 Tons of the Gap
The widest provincial difference is in Ordu, where published accounts do not even agree on the final unit of the ministry-linked figure.
Giresun İleri reported 195,361 tons on July 29. Ekonomim gave 195,360 tons the next day. KFMİB's estimate is 263,196 tons.
That leaves an Ordu difference of 67,835 or 67,836 tons, depending on which commission figure is confirmed, and puts roughly two-thirds of the national divergence in one province.
Sakarya has the next-largest difference in Ekonomim's comparative table: 89,261 tons on the ministry-linked side and 104,660 tons for KFMİB, a gap of 15,399 tons. Samsun is listed at 110,685 against 115,512, while Düzce is nearly aligned at 102,071 against 102,773. In Trabzon, KFMİB is lower, at 43,463 tons against 49,839 in the ministry-linked table.
The Surveys Covered Different Dates
The Ordu commission and KFMİB did not conduct their final fieldwork over the same period.
The Ordu Provincial Directorate of Agriculture and Forestry said on July 3 that the provincial commission was counting at 400 points selected to represent the province, beginning on the coast and moving into middle and higher elevations. The work included disease and pest effects and was scheduled to continue through July 23.
Anadolu Agency reported that representatives from 11 institutions sat on the commission. Ordu Yorum, citing Türkiye Union of Chambers of Agriculture board member Arslan Soydan, said exporters' associations were among the participating bodies but did not identify the association or representative involved.
KFMİB's final study ran from July 13 to July 28, covering 15 provinces, 87 districts, 477 orchards and 1,625 branches. Sampled clusters were opened to assess sound kernels, fruit set and yield.
The stated fieldwork windows overlapped from July 13 to July 23 but covered different periods overall.
The Area Inputs Are Not Publicly Comparable
Tonnage depends on the field observations and on the amount of productive hazelnut land to which those observations are applied.
An April-May KFMİB-linked dataset carried by Ordu Olay assigned 231,121 hectares of hazelnut-producing area to Ordu and produced a provincial estimate of 265,995 tons at that stage.
The July material does not say whether KFMİB retained that 231,121-hectare input when it calculated 263,196 tons. The corresponding area used for the roughly 195,000-ton commission estimate is also absent from the published material.
If both calculations used the same producing area, the discrepancy would lie mainly in yield, weighting or related inputs such as cluster density, fruit set and sound-kernel rates. If the area figures differed, part of it could already be built into the tonnage calculation.
The provincial calculation sheets would settle that point.
Bosphorus News Asked for the Calculation Sheets
Bosphorus News sent separate written requests on September 5 to the Ordu Provincial Directorate of Agriculture and Forestry and to KFMİB through the Black Sea Exporters' Associations.
The Ordu request contained 13 questions and document requests; KFMİB received 15. They covered the source of the production-area figures, the weighting of district and altitude-level observations, and any confidence interval, standard error or other measure of statistical uncertainty.
The Ordu directorate was also asked whether a ministry-level consolidated national table exists and whether its final provincial figure is 195,360 tons, 195,361 tons or another value.
KFMİB was asked whether it or another exporters' association representative sat on the Ordu Crop Estimate Commission and, if so, whether that representative signed the commission's approximately 195,000-ton result or formally recorded a dissent.
Neither institution had responded by publication time.
Without the calculation sheets and commission record, the two Ordu estimates cannot be reconstructed on the same basis from the material currently available to the public.
Sources: Turkish Statistical Institute, Ordu Provincial Directorate of Agriculture and Forestry, Black Sea Hazelnut and Products Exporters' Association, Anadolu Agency, Giresun İleri, Ekonomim, Karadeniz Ekonomi, Ordu Olay, Ordu Yorum, Bosphorus News correspondence, Bosphorus News review and reporting.