By Prof. Dr. Veysel Ulusoy
Türkiye's latest growth figures show an economy that is still expanding on paper, but the deeper question is whether that growth is producing income, production strength and welfare for society.
The answer is not as comfortable as the headline number suggests.
The Turkish economy grew by 2.5 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Quarterly growth was only 0.1 percent. That narrow difference matters because growth without momentum can easily become a statistical figure rather than an economic improvement felt by households, producers and workers.
The composition of growth is even more important than the rate itself. Industry contracted by 0.8 percent in the first quarter, while household consumption remained one of the main drivers of activity. Exports fell sharply. In other words, the economy grew, but the structure of that growth did not point to a broad strengthening of productive capacity.
This is where the debate becomes more serious than the familiar question of whether the economy is growing. A country can grow and still fail to become richer in real terms if growth depends on consumption, imported inputs, credit expansion or a currency policy that weakens domestic production.
Economists describe one version of this problem as immiserizing growth: a case in which output expands but the country's welfare position deteriorates. Türkiye does not fit that theory in its textbook form. The issue is not simply a collapse in trade terms after export expansion. The problem is more practical and more visible: the economy produces growth figures without creating enough industrial depth, productivity or income distribution gains.
Türkiye's production structure remains heavily dependent on imported intermediate goods. When growth accelerates under this structure, import demand rises as well. A large part of the value created in the final product is therefore transferred abroad through imported inputs, energy, technology and components. Domestic output rises, but domestic value-added does not rise at the same pace.
A relatively strong lira adds another layer. It may help reduce inflation pressure for a time, but it also weakens export competitiveness and encourages imported goods. If the exchange-rate policy is not matched by industrial policy, technology investment and productivity gains, the economy begins to consume more foreign production while domestic producers lose ground.
This is why the first-quarter numbers should not be read as a simple success story. Growth led by consumption and supported by import-dependent production does not automatically create a stronger economy. It can even widen the gap between macroeconomic figures and daily economic reality.
The industry contraction is the warning signal. A country that wants sustainable growth needs manufacturing, technology, high-value exports and productive investment. Without those, growth becomes vulnerable to external financing, exchange-rate pressure and short-term domestic demand.
The same problem appears in welfare indicators. If growth does not improve purchasing power, job quality and household security, the public does not experience it as prosperity. People do not live inside gross domestic product tables. They live through wages, rent, food prices, debt payments and employment conditions.
The government may point to positive growth as evidence of economic resilience. That is understandable. But resilience cannot be measured only by whether the economy avoids contraction. A stronger test is whether the economy can grow through production rather than consumption, exports rather than import dependence, and productivity rather than price distortions.
Türkiye needs a growth model that raises domestic value-added. That means stronger industrial planning, higher technology production, export competitiveness and a currency policy that does not punish domestic producers. It also requires a clear link between macroeconomic expansion and welfare gains.
The question, then, is not whether Türkiye is growing. It is whether Türkiye is growing in a way that makes the country richer.
At the moment, the figures leave that question open. Growth exists. The welfare story behind it remains fragile.
Prof. Dr. Veysel Ulusoy is Chairman of the Bosphorus News Editorial Board.
Sources: Turkish Statistical Institute, Türkiye's Treasury and Finance Ministry, Bosphorus News review and reporting.