By Prof. Dr. Mehmet Hasgüler | Guest Commentary

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Hasgüler is a Turkish Cypriot scholar of international relations and Cyprus studies. He previously served as deputy chair of YÖDAK and ran as an independent candidate in the 2025 Turkish Cypriot presidential election. He has written extensively on the Cyprus conflict.

Written for Bosphorus News XTRA. Translated from Turkish by Murat Yıldız.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Bosphorus News.

"Mad July"

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres is making a critical visit to Cyprus, including a joint meeting with the leaders of the two sides. Squeezing negotiations into July, a month marked by some of the darkest events in our history, is an intriguing choice in light of the island's long record of failed diplomacy. To put it more plainly, there is something unusual about it.

It is summer, after all, and the month is July. And let us not forget that July's real name in this part of the world, to borrow from Faize Özdemirciler, is "Mad July."¹

This is the season of madness in Cyprus. The extreme heat alone may be enough to drive people out of their minds, but July's deeper madness lies in history. Our past is filled with defining events that unfolded in this month, a succession of moments when collective reason seemed to collapse. Özdemirciler's poem emerged from precisely that experience.

Yet Cyprus today appears to be showing signs, from both within and beyond the island, that it may finally be moving toward a more rational path. That is, of course, a hope. But there are also indications that such a political climate may be taking shape.

After the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran and the NATO summit in Ankara, attention is finally turning to Cyprus. Those seeking to impose a new regional order now appear ready to address an island they had left untouched while occupied with other priorities.

The major powers that, until now, attached little importance to Cyprus's division and at times even benefited from it may now bring a model for a united Cyprus to the table. In the regional order they are constructing, a united Cyprus may serve their interests better than a divided one.

There are, of course, many issues that would have to be resolved. The vast hydrocarbon investments in the Eastern Mediterranean and off Cyprus, and therefore the distribution of energy resources, are among the most important.

Other major questions include the creation of a large investment zone in Varosha and the property wealth that could be generated there, the shaping of a new identity for Cyprus through NATO, the substantial compensation awards expected from the European Court of Human Rights, and the new security and defense roles Türkiye may assume in the region following the NATO summit in Ankara.

One point is clear. The world of today is neither the world of 1974 nor that of 2004. Türkiye, one of the principal actors in Cyprus, is also very different from the country it was 52 years ago.

Consider this. Türkiye now ranks among the world's top 10 countries in defense export capacity. The confidence and soft-power influence created by that position have given it a distinct standing both within Western institutions such as NATO and the European Union and within institutions outside the Western world.

Let us pause for a moment.

I would like to pose several questions to those who approach the process with prejudice, particularly through the lens of national sentiment and reflex.

Is Cyprus a dispute? Yes.

Whether the solution is based on two states or a single state, does the road to either not pass through negotiations? Again, yes.

Would it not therefore be right for Türkiye, strengthened by the new roles it secured at the NATO summit and by its current leadership position, to take the initiative on a Cyprus settlement?

This would also be a major opportunity for Türkiye. A balanced settlement of the Cyprus issue could elevate its position in the Eastern Mediterranean to a different level. If Türkiye were able to translate that into influence and soft power across the whole island, we would begin discussing an entirely different regional picture.

There is, however, one factor that could disrupt this outlook: Israel.

The cooperation and agreements between Israel and the governments of the Republic of Cyprus, the genocide in Gaza and the broader suffering inflicted on Palestinians sit at the center of this picture like a dark question mark.

How far Israel may be able to disturb this emerging process will become clearer as events unfold.

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¹ Faize Özdemirciler is a Turkish Cypriot poet and writer whose work is deeply shaped by Cyprus's political history and collective memory. She was displaced with her family in 1974, when she was 10 years old, and her 1999 collection Deli Temmuz (Mad July) draws on July as a symbol of the island's traumatic past.

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Mehmet Hasgüler completed his doctorate at Ankara University in 1998 and taught at Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, where he was appointed professor in 2014. He served as foreign policy adviser to Turkish Cypriot leader Derviş Eroğlu from 2010 to 2013 and sat on the Turkish Cypriot higher education board YÖDAK from 2015 to 2023. He stood as an independent candidate in the 2025 Turkish Cypriot presidential election.