Eastern Mediterranean Strategic Brief | March 29, 2026
Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk
Military Posture
US-Israeli strikes hit Bandar Khamir, an Iranian port city near the Strait of Hormuz, on 29 March, killing five people and wounding four, according to Iranian state media. The strike targeted a quay and marks the first direct hit on a port facility in immediate proximity to the strait since the war began on 28 February.
Iran has ordered its armed forces to prepare for potential US ground military operations, signaling a shift in threat perception as the conflict moves beyond air and missile exchanges. As Bosphorus News reported, contingency planning in Washington points to limited, targeted operations rather than a large-scale invasion, focused on strategic sites and rapid withdrawal. Iranian officials have publicly warned that any ground deployment would be treated as a major escalation. Full coverage: Iran Orders Forces to Prepare for Potential US Ground Operations
The Pentagon has not confirmed a ground operation timeline. Trump has not issued an approval order.
Iran's IRGC struck Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in Abu Dhabi on 28 to 29 March with missiles and drones. Alba reported two employees wounded. EGA confirmed significant damage to its Al-Taweelah site and six injuries. The IRGC described both facilities as linked to US military and aerospace sectors in the region. Reuters was unable to independently verify that claim.
The IRGC issued a deadline of 30 March at 08.30 GMT, demanding US condemnation of strikes on Iranian universities. It threatened to target US and Israeli-affiliated universities in the Middle East if the deadline passed without a response.
Saudi Arabia intercepted 10 drones over several hours on 29 March, according to the Saudi Defence Ministry.
Air and Missile Defence
Multiple explosions were reported across northern Tehran on 29 March, with smoke visible from impacted areas. No official confirmation of targets had been issued by the time of publication.
An Iranian missile fragment struck the Ne'ot Hovav industrial zone in southern Israel on 29 March, igniting a fire. Thirty-four fire crews worked to extinguish the blaze. No casualties were reported.
Hezbollah launched approximately 250 projectiles from Lebanon over the weekend of 28 to 29 March. Of those, 23 crossed into Israel, according to an Israeli military official. The remainder were aimed at IDF forces operating inside southern Lebanon.
Maritime Security
Iran confirmed passage for 20 additional Pakistan-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, at a rate of two ships per day. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar welcomed the move as a confidence-building measure. The cumulative number of vessels granted selective passage remains far below pre-war transit volumes of approximately 138 ships per day.
The strike on Bandar Khamir adds a new dimension to Hormuz risk. Previous strikes have targeted inland facilities and Gulf infrastructure. Hitting port infrastructure at the strait's edge introduces direct operational risk to any future reopening effort.
Diplomacy
Türkiye's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan in Islamabad on 29 March for two days of talks on de-escalation. As Bosphorus News reported, the meeting was candid and constructive according to Pakistani Foreign Minister Dar, with participants aligned on pursuing peace and stability. The US, Iran and Israel were not present. Full coverage: Pakistan Hosts Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Egypt for Iran War Talks in Islamabad
The Islamabad format began as a Türkiye-hosted initiative. It shifted to Pakistan after Islamabad deepened its role as the primary conduit between Washington and Tehran. Pakistan confirmed it has already relayed Iran's formal response to the US proposal. Tehran's stated conditions include an end to hostilities, reparations, guarantees against future strikes and recognition of its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf dismissed the talks on 29 March, describing them as cover for a US ground operation he said was already being planned. China has conveyed support to Tehran for Pakistan's mediation effort and encouraged Iranian engagement with the process, according to Al Jazeera.
Syria reported intercepting a drone on 29 March targeting a US military base. Pro-Iran Iraqi groups claimed responsibility.
Energy and Infrastructure
The Bandar Khamir strike adds direct military pressure to the Strait of Hormuz corridor at a moment when the IEA has already described the disruption as the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market. Brent crude has been trading between 100 and 120 dollars per barrel since early March. EU gas storage stands at 28 percent capacity.
Alba had already initiated a shutdown of three aluminium smelting lines, covering 19 percent of its capacity, in early March following force majeure declarations linked to the Hormuz closure. Saturday's strike compounds that disruption.
Israel-Lebanon Front
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on 29 March from the IDF Northern Command the further expansion of Israel's security buffer zone in southern Lebanon. "I have just instructed to further expand the existing security buffer zone. We are determined to fundamentally change the situation in the north," Netanyahu said in a video statement. He described the move as aimed at pushing anti-tank missile fire away from the Israeli border and preventing infiltration toward the Galilee.
The 162nd Division joined two divisions already operating in southern Lebanon as of 26 March, extending operations into the western sector. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has said troops will remain south of the Litani River as long as Hezbollah retains offensive capacity there. Israel has destroyed all five bridges over the Litani.
Lebanon's Health Ministry reported 1,238 people killed in Israeli strikes since 2 March, up from 1,189 the previous day. At least 124 children are among the dead.
***Unverified: Iran's ground operations directive is sourced to The Media Line and has not been confirmed by official Iranian military statements. The IRGC's characterisation of Alba and EGA as linked to US military sectors has not been independently verified. Pentagon ground operation planning details are drawn from Washington Post reporting citing unnamed sources and have not been officially confirmed.
Casualty figures are drawn from Lebanon's Health Ministry, Iranian Red Crescent and IDF statements. Diplomatic sourcing: AP, Al Jazeera, CNN, Bloomberg, NPR.
Sources: AP, Reuters, CNN, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, NPR, NBC News, Washington Post, Arab News, Jerusalem Post, Al-Monitor, LBC, Bosphorus News.
For yesterday's brief: