Weakened Iran Could Shift Regional Balance Toward Türkiye, Analysis Says

By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk

A recent EUalive op-ed argues that the Iran war may leave Türkiye in a stronger regional position, not because Ankara wanted the conflict, but because a weakened Iran would remove one of the main constraints on Turkish power in the Middle East. The piece says Türkiye tried to prevent a war from the outset, while also preparing for the fallout once fighting began.

The article stresses that Ankara’s first reaction is shaped by risk, not triumph. It points to higher energy prices, pressure on inflation, missile activity over southern Türkiye and the danger that any serious weakening of the Iranian state could produce refugee flows, ethnic unrest and new Kurdish dynamics along Türkiye’s eastern flank. It argues that Turkish officials see the collapse of state authority in neighboring countries as a direct security warning, not an abstract geopolitical scenario.

From there, the analysis says Ankara is drawing three strategic conclusions from the war. First, missile defence has become an urgent priority. Second, debate is opening inside Türkiye over whether the country should eventually seek a nuclear deterrent. Third, Ankara is looking for stronger regional security arrangements, including deeper defence coordination with Gulf states and interest in wider partnership formats involving countries such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

EUalive’s core argument is that Iran may emerge weakened, the United States may lose some of its aura as the region’s uncontested security guarantor, and Israel may retain military strength while facing deeper distrust across the region. In that setting, the piece says, Türkiye could find itself in the strongest relative position, though with far greater exposure to instability on its borders and new strategic burdens rather than a clean geopolitical win.

Credit: Günter Seufert, EUalive

Günter Seufert is the former Founding Director of the Centre for Applied Turkish Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He wrote this op-ed in personal capacity.

Full Analysis: https://eualive.net/a-weakened-iran-leaves-turkey-as-the-regional-hegemon/