Russian Gas Flows via TurkStream Drop 25 Percent as Hormuz Crisis Lifts LNG Pressure

By Bosphorus News Energy Desk

Russian natural gas deliveries to Europe through TurkStream fell sharply in April after a stronger March, putting renewed attention on Europe's last remaining Russian pipeline route as the Hormuz crisis tightened LNG markets and lifted price pressure across the continent.

Average daily flows through the undersea pipeline declined to 41 million cubic metres in April, down 25.5 percent from March, according to Reuters preliminary calculations based on data from ENTSOG, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas. Year on year, the fall was far smaller, at 1.7 percent.

Total April volumes reached about 1.23 billion cubic metres, compared with 1.25 billion cubic metres in April 2025. The monthly pullback followed a stronger March, when demand through the route increased after Ukraine ended Russian gas transit at the start of 2025.

The April decline does not point to a collapse in TurkStream use. It shows how quickly European demand and procurement patterns can shift when LNG markets come under pressure. Reuters linked the drop to shortages and price rises after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the International Energy Agency described the disruption as a de facto closure to LNG cargoes.

The broader picture remains more stable. In the first four months of 2026, Russian gas exports to Europe through TurkStream rose 7.3 percent year on year to approximately 6.2 billion cubic metres, reflecting sustained use of the route after the Ukraine transit shutdown.

TurkStream's strategic importance has grown since that cutoff. ENTSOG's Summer Supply Outlook 2026 says Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe are now limited to the TurkStream route. Its assessment also warns that a full Russian pipeline disruption would require an additional 66 TWh, or about 6 billion cubic metres, of LNG during the 2026 summer season, with the strongest impact in southeastern Europe.

The same ENTSOG assessment said EU gas storage levels stood at 28 percent on April 1, equivalent to 314 TWh or about 29 billion cubic metres. That was lower than the three previous years and at the same level as before the energy crisis, leaving Europe exposed to higher refill pressure before winter.

The Hormuz crisis has added a second layer of stress. ACER, the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, said in its April 2026 gas market report that the Middle East conflict could affect 20 percent of global LNG exports. The agency said the EU sourced 7 percent of its LNG from Qatar during the winter 2025 and 2026 season, equal to 4 percent of EU natural gas imports over the same period.

ACER also warned that if Qatari production remains offline until December 2026, the global LNG supply shortfall could reach 26 billion cubic metres and EU spot LNG demand could rise to about 56 billion cubic metres. QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on LNG shipments, with Reuters reporting extended disruptions to Italy's Edison contract after damage to Qatari LNG export capacity.

That market pressure keeps TurkStream politically and commercially sensitive. The pipeline runs 930 kilometres under the Black Sea from Russia's Krasnodar region to Kıyıköy in northwestern Türkiye. BOTAŞ says the system consists of two lines with a total annual capacity of 31.5 billion cubic metres. One line supplies Türkiye, while the second carries gas onward through Türkiye to southern and southeastern Europe.

Türkiye's role as the indispensable corridor for the remaining Russian pipeline gas reaching European markets became more visible in April, as LNG supplies from the Gulf faced disruption, European storage needs rose before winter, and southeastern Europe remained more exposed to pipeline constraints than coastal LNG importing markets. The pressure also sits alongside Ankara's wider energy push, from the Black Sea and Akkuyu to its Somalia offshore drilling campaign, a broader strategy Bosphorus News examined through Türkiye's three front energy drive and its coverage of the Çağrı Bey drilling mission off Somalia.

The same file also intersects with Türkiye's own gas contract calendar and its ambition to deepen its position as a regional gas trading hub. That ambition is not limited to pipeline diplomacy. Türkiye has also expanded domestic energy capacity, including solar power, where Bosphorus News compared Türkiye's 25 GW milestone with Europe's leading markets. With Russian pipeline flows now concentrated through TurkStream, any disruption, price shock or political decision around the route carries consequences beyond a single monthly volume figure.

April's fall leaves that wider exposure clearer. Europe's remaining Russian pipeline gas now depends on one corridor running through Türkiye, while the Hormuz crisis has made alternative LNG supplies more expensive, less predictable and more politically exposed.

***Sources: Reuters preliminary calculations from ENTSOG flow data; ENTSOG Summer Supply Outlook 2026; ENTSOG press release on Summer Supply Outlook 2026 and Summer Supply Review 2025; ACER European Gas Key Developments report, April 23, 2026; BOTAŞ TurkStream project information; International Energy Agency market commentary on Hormuz disruption and Bosphorus News reporting.