Eastern Mediterranean Strategic Brief | March 25, 2026
By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk
Diplomacy
Türkiye Pushes to Keep Gulf States Out of the War as Ankara Relays Messages Between Washington and Tehran
Bloomberg reported on March 25 that Türkiye is conducting intensive diplomatic efforts to prevent Gulf Arab states from joining the war against Iran. Ankara has urged Gulf nations to act with restraint. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar and held calls with other regional counterparts. AKP foreign affairs vice chair Harun Armağan confirmed to Reuters on March 25 that Ankara is relaying messages between Washington and Tehran and conveying them to Gulf countries affected by the expanding war.
President Erdoğan said after a cabinet meeting on March 24 that Israel must not be permitted to undermine diplomatic settlement efforts. "This senseless, illegal war must end, and the door to dialogue must be opened," he said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian praised Erdoğan's stance on X on March 25. Israel expressed concern to CNN that Washington may declare a one month ceasefire to allow negotiations.
Iran Rejects US 15 Point Ceasefire Plan, Presents Counter Demands
The Trump administration delivered a 15 point ceasefire proposal to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries on March 25. The plan includes a one month ceasefire, the decommissioning of Iran's Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow nuclear facilities, a halt to uranium enrichment, an end to support for proxy forces and guaranteed safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In return, Washington offered to lift sanctions and assist Iran's civilian nuclear programme.
Iran rejected the proposal. State media cited a senior political security official confirming the decision. IRGC military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari mocked Washington on state television, asking whether the US had reached "the stage of negotiating with yourselves." Iran presented its own five conditions: a halt to all attacks and assassinations, mechanisms to prevent a resumption of hostilities, payment of war reparations, the lifting of all US sanctions and respect for Iran's nuclear activities.
Pakistan offered to host a face to face meeting in Islamabad. Türkiye, Egypt and Pakistan are pressing for the meeting to take place before the end of the week. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on March 24 to engage in talks with Washington as soon as possible.
Gulf States Escalate Diplomatic Response at UN Human Rights Council
Gulf countries described Iranian missile and drone attacks as an existential threat during a session at the UN Human Rights Council on March 25. The council adopted a text by consensus characterising the strikes as unprovoked and deliberate. An urgent meeting on Iran's Gulf strikes is scheduled for March 26.
Cyprus Opens Talks with London on Sovereign Base Areas
Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides said on March 25 that Nicosia has initiated discussions with London on the future of Britain's sovereign base areas on the island. He told reporters after the March 25 national parade that formal positions have been conveyed to the British government and preliminary contacts have taken place. He declined to disclose details, saying the discussions will remain confidential. Britain's Ministry of Defence said the status of the sovereign base areas is not open to negotiation. The move follows the March 2 drone strike on RAF Akrotiri, which placed the security arrangements and legal framework of the bases back on the political agenda.
Cyprus and Greece defence ministers Vasilis Palmas and Nikos Dendias met in Athens on March 24 and reviewed the continued presence of Greek military assets on the island, including the Kimon and Psara frigates and four F-16 fighter jets stationed at Andreas Papandreou Air Base in Paphos.
Military Posture
US Deploys Additional Forces as Strikes on Iran Continue
The United States approved the deployment of more than 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East. Two Marine Expeditionary Units adding approximately 5,000 Marines and thousands of sailors are also being sent to the region. Total US military presence stands at approximately 50,000 personnel.
Israeli and American forces carried out extensive strikes on Tehran and Isfahan on March 24. The IDF said it destroyed two naval cruise missile production sites in Tehran and struck the Iranian Defence Ministry's optics company in Isfahan. An explosives production facility and Iran's sole underwater research centre for submarines were also targeted.
IRNA reported on March 25 that more than 1,750 people have been killed in Iran since the war began on February 28. The Iranian Red Crescent Society said more than 82,000 civilian structures have been damaged or destroyed. Iran appointed IRGC veteran Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, replacing Ali Larijani, who was killed in an Israeli strike on March 17.
Israel is set to raise its reserve mobilisation ceiling from 280,000 to 400,000. US Central Command reported approximately 290 American service members injured as of March 24, up from 200 the previous week.
European and NATO Forces Build Up Around Cyprus
The UK, Greece, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands have deployed warships, fighter jets, helicopters and anti drone systems to the Eastern Mediterranean and around Cyprus. British Defence Secretary John Healey confirmed on March 24 that HMS Dragon, a Type 45 destroyer, has arrived in the Eastern Mediterranean and will integrate into Cyprus defence operations. An additional 500 air defence personnel are expected at UK sovereign bases in the coming days.
France expanded patrols east of Cyprus with the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. Spain deployed the frigate Cristobal Colón. Greek frigates Kimon and Psara continue patrols off Limassol.
USS Gerald R. Ford arrived at Souda Bay, Crete on March 23 for repairs following a March 12 fire in the laundry facility during Red Sea operations. The Navy said the carrier remains fully mission capable. Repairs are expected to last more than a week.
On March 24, an Iranian missile intercepted over Lebanese territory in Keserwan was assessed by US military intelligence as likely aimed at Cyprus. Around the same time, a Turkish F-16 briefly took off from Northern Cyprus. The reason has not been disclosed.
Air and Missile Defence
Nine Iranian Attack Waves Hit Israeli Cities on March 24
Nine waves of Iranian ballistic missile attacks against Israel were recorded on March 24. Five targeted southern Israel, three struck the Tel Aviv area and one hit the north. Residential buildings were hit in Nesher, Tel Aviv, Petah Tikva and Bnei Brak, injuring approximately ten people including an infant. Since the war began, 18 civilians in Israel have been killed and more than 5,045 injured.
A civilian woman was killed in northern Israel by a Hezbollah mortar attack on March 24, the first Israeli civilian death linked to Lebanese fire in the current war.
Gulf Interceptions Continue as Attacks Spread
Saudi Arabia intercepted approximately 20 drones targeting its Eastern Province on March 24 along with two ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh. A UAE security force member of Moroccan nationality was killed in an Iranian attack in Bahrain. Bahrain's forces have intercepted 153 missiles and 301 drones since the war began. A drone struck a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport on March 25, causing a fire with no casualties reported.
Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation said a projectile struck the grounds of the Bushehr nuclear power plant on March 24, describing it as a renewed attack by the US and Israel.
Maritime Security
Iran Signals Conditional Hormuz Passage While IRGC Maintains Blockade
Iran's mission to the United Nations said on March 25 that non hostile vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz provided they coordinate with Iranian authorities and do not support acts of aggression against Iran. A similar notification was sent to the International Maritime Organisation.
The statement does not constitute reopening. The IRGC simultaneously maintained that vessels linked to the United States, Israel or their allies remain legitimate targets. The two positions amount to a selective, politically conditioned transit regime rather than a restoration of free navigation.
Approximately 2,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers remain stranded in and around the strait. The IMO continued its call for a safe maritime corridor, underscoring that the crisis now extends beyond trade and energy to crew evacuation.
A Reuters analysis published on March 25 noted that restoring safe passage through Hormuz will be significantly harder than reopening the Bab al Mandab, citing Iran's mine laying capability, coastal missile batteries, drone capacity and the narrow geography of the strait. A UN Security Council resolution calling for all necessary means to keep the strait open faced opposition on March 25 over concerns the language could authorise military action against Iran.
Shadow Fleet Tanker Drifts Uncrewed Toward Libya
An uncrewed Russian LNG tanker linked to the shadow fleet has been drifting through the Mediterranean toward Libya's coast, prompting a response from Libyan authorities and warnings from European governments. Footage released by NGO Sea Watch showed the vessel, Arctic Metagaz, drifting in open waters. Italy, France and other Mediterranean states warned the European Commission that the tanker represents a serious ecological threat. Libya's National Oil Corporation said it had contracted a specialist company to handle the vessel and move it toward a Libyan port. International experts were brought in through subsidiary Mellitah Oil and Gas, in cooperation with Eni, to stabilise the tanker. No vessel specific public statement from the IMO or the United Nations was visible as of March 24, a gap Bosphorus News documented in its reporting on the incident.
Brent crude traded near $101 per barrel on March 25, easing from recent highs as reports of the US peace plan briefly lifted sentiment. Prices firmed again after Iran's rejection. Asian markets opened higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 2.3 percent and South Korea's KOSPI up 2.6 percent.
Energy and Infrastructure
Türkiye Reinforces Position as Secure Energy Corridor
Türkiye's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on March 24 that the country faces no gas supply risk following the halt in Iranian gas flows linked to the South Pars strike. He said storage levels remain sufficient and alternative import routes are in place. Bayraktar added that Türkiye sources LNG from 12 countries and pipeline gas from four, and imports only around 10 percent of its crude from Middle Eastern sources, a structure he said poses no risk to overall supply security, as Bosphorus News reported on March 25.
The Kirkuk Ceyhan pipeline continues to operate at 250,000 barrels per day following the March 18 agreement between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government. Bayraktar proposed extending the pipeline south toward Basra to create a permanent alternative to Hormuz dependent exports. The existing pipeline contract with Türkiye expires in July 2026, and Ankara is seeking a broader deal covering oil, gas, petrochemicals and electricity. The closure of Hormuz has already shifted the energy map toward overland routes crossing Türkiye, placing Ceyhan at the centre of Europe's supply calculus, a shift Bosphorus News examined in detail this week.
The Philippines declared a national energy emergency on March 25. Sri Lanka ordered street lights and billboard lighting switched off as part of emergency conservation measures.
Israel-Lebanon Front
Israel Declares Security Zone to Litani as Lebanon Expels Iranian Ambassador
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on March 24 that the IDF will seize and hold territory in southern Lebanon up to the Litani River. He said all bridges over the river have been destroyed and the military will control remaining crossings. Katz said displaced Lebanese civilians will not return south of the Litani until security for northern Israel is ensured.
Hezbollah said an Israeli occupation poses an existential threat to Lebanon and vowed armed resistance. Clashes are concentrated around Khiam and the border town of Taybeh, where Israeli forces are attempting to sever ground supply routes south of the Litani.
An Israeli strike on a residential apartment in Bchamoun, approximately 10 kilometres southeast of Beirut, killed three people on March 25, including a three year old girl. The strike came without warning. Since March 2, at least 1,072 people have been killed and 2,966 wounded in Lebanon. More than 1.5 million have been displaced. Thirty three were killed in the last 24 hours.
Lebanon declared Iran's ambassador designate Mohammad Reza Sheibani persona non grata on March 24, ordering him to leave by March 29. The Foreign Ministry also recalled Lebanon's ambassador to Iran for consultations. The ministry accused Sheibani of interfering in internal affairs and holding meetings with unofficial entities. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said the IRGC is directing Hezbollah's operations and was behind the March 2 drone attack on Cyprus. Hezbollah condemned the expulsion as reckless and demanded its reversal.
The UN condemned Israel's military activity in Lebanon on March 25. Spokesman Stéphane Dujarric said the territorial integrity and government of Lebanon need to be respected.
Greece: Predator Espionage Track Opens
The European Parliament discussed the Predator spyware convictions and rule of law concerns in Greece on March 11. An Athens court convicted four Intellexa linked individuals on February 26 for illegal surveillance of at least 87 people and referred records to prosecutors for an espionage investigation. Intellexa founder Tal Dilian told Greek media on March 12 that his company sells exclusively to governments, a claim that contradicts Athens' position that Predator was operated by private actors. Opposition leader Nikos Androulakis published an open letter on March 22 calling on all confirmed targets to join legal proceedings. The official target list includes military commanders, government ministers, journalists and the prosecutor overseeing Greece's intelligence service, in a case Bosphorus News has documented in a full investigation.
Unverified or Insufficient Sourcing
The following items were flagged during editorial review but excluded from this brief due to insufficient sourcing or inability to independently verify within the reporting window.
Türkiye Syria offshore energy agreement reportedly targeting 2026: no primary source identified.
Cyprus Block 10 drilling reportedly postponed: no official confirmation from operators or Cypriot authorities.
North Africa energy shock: claim too broad, no specific sourcing.
Ceyhan shipment volume reportedly increased by 15 percent: figure could not be matched to any official or industry source.
USS Gerald R. Ford repair reportedly completed with return to operations imminent: Navy sources indicate repairs are ongoing at Souda Bay with at least one week expected. Carrier has not departed.
***Casualty figures are based on official statements and international agencies. The US 15 point plan has not been publicly released in full; reported contents are based on Channel 12, NYT, WSJ and Al Jazeera accounts. Iran's rejection is sourced from state media. Israeli claims on Iranian military infrastructure have not been independently verified. The Iranian missile assessed as targeting Cyprus is based on US military intelligence reporting and has not been officially confirmed. The Turkish F-16 flight from Northern Cyprus has not been explained by any official source.
Sources: Al Jazeera, Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CNN, NBC News, CNBC, France 24, The Washington Post, The New York Times, TIME, Fox News, Times of Israel, Jerusalem Post, Military.com, NPR, Al Monitor, Middle East Eye, Anadolu Agency, Cyprus Mail, Naval News, USNI News, Sea Watch, Alma Research Center, IDF Spokesperson, US 6th Fleet, IRNA, Press TV, Turkish Foreign Ministry, Turkish Energy Ministry, Lebanese Foreign Ministry, Lebanese Health Ministry, International Maritime Organisation, Bosphorus News.
For yesterday's brief: