Eastern Mediterranean Strategic Brief | March 23, 2026
By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk
Diplomacy
Fidan Expands War Diplomacy as Türkiye Channels Messages Between Washington and Tehran
Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan intensified diplomatic contacts on March 23, speaking with counterparts including Egypt’s Badr Abdelatty, Norway’s Espen Barth Eide and Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar as Ankara pushed to halt the fighting.
Turkish diplomatic sources told CNN that Fidan conducted more than a dozen calls over the past 48 hours, reaching counterparts across Iran, the United States, the European Union, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq and Pakistan.
Axios reported, citing a US source, that Türkiye, Pakistan and Egypt have been relaying messages between Washington and Tehran over the past two days. The Turkish Foreign Ministry declined to comment on any mediation role.
Middle East Eye reported that Ankara is seeking a short ceasefire window to open space for negotiations while coordinating positions with European and Gulf actors. Speaking over the weekend, Fidan said Israel “does not want peace” and added that Washington’s position would be decisive.
Trump Delays Energy Strikes for Five Days as Iran Rejects Talks
US President Donald Trump said on March 23 that planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure would be postponed for five days, citing what he described as “very good and productive conversations” with Tehran.
Trump said envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff held talks on Sunday evening with “a top person” in Iran. He added that Tehran had agreed it would “never have a nuclear weapon” and suggested the Strait of Hormuz could reopen “very soon” if a deal is reached.
Iran denied that any negotiations had taken place. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on X that “no negotiations have been held with the US.” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran’s position on the Strait of Hormuz and conditions for ending the war remain unchanged.
An Iranian official told Al Jazeera that messages had been passed “through Egypt and Türkiye” but said Washington rejected Tehran’s two conditions: compensation and recognition of aggression.
Israel Says 330 of Iran’s 470 Missile Launchers Disabled
Israel’s military said on March 23 that it has destroyed or disabled approximately 330 of Iran’s estimated 470 missile launchers since the war began on February 28.
The claim could not be independently verified. Iranian forces continue to launch ballistic missiles toward Israel and across the Gulf.
Military Posture
Israel Launches New Strikes on Tehran as Operations Continue Despite US Pause
Israel and the United States carried out a new round of strikes on Tehran on March 23. A correspondent in the Iranian capital described the explosions as unusually intense, particularly on the eastern side of the city.
The Israeli military said it struck targets “in the heart of Tehran” and confirmed follow-on attacks within hours. The IDF said operations are continuing despite Trump’s announcement of a pause on energy infrastructure strikes.
Israel’s army chief Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir said on March 22 that operations in Lebanon “have only begun” and would be prolonged.
Smotrich Calls for Israeli Border to Extend to Litani River
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on March 23 that Israel’s campaign in Lebanon “needs to end with a different reality entirely” and declared that “the new Israeli border must be the Litani.”
The Litani River lies well inside Lebanese territory. A military official said Israeli ground operations remain limited to areas near the border.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned strikes on bridges and civilian infrastructure as a “dangerous escalation.”
Hezbollah Fires on Kiryat Shmona as Cross-Border Exchanges Continue
Hezbollah launched missiles at the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona on March 23. Three people were treated for shrapnel injuries at Ziv Medical Center in Safed, while one person was airlifted to Haifa in serious condition.
Hezbollah continues operations at a sustained tempo despite three weeks of Israeli strikes.
Air and Missile Defence
Iran Claims Control of Gulf Waters While Maintaining Deterrent Threats
Iran’s military spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaghari said on March 23 that Tehran maintains “full and powerful control” over the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that mine-laying is unnecessary due to existing capabilities.
Iran’s Defence Council has previously warned that all access routes in the Gulf would be mined if Iranian territory or islands were attacked. That warning has not been formally withdrawn.
Iranian Missiles Strike Multiple Israeli Cities as Interceptions Fail
Iranian ballistic missiles struck Tel Aviv, Kiryat Gat and Ashkelon during the early hours of March 23.
More than 180 people were injured across Israel over the weekend, including in earlier strikes on Arad and Dimona. Israeli authorities said some incoming missiles were not intercepted.
Zelensky Says Russia Providing Intelligence Support to Iran
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 23 that Ukrainian intelligence has “irrefutable” evidence that Russia is supplying signals and electronic intelligence to Iran.
He said the support is being provided directly and through cooperation with third-party partners. The claim has not been independently verified.
Maritime Security
Hormuz Transit Rates Collapse as Shipping Reroutes Accelerate
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said on March 23 that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is now “completely off the charts for the rest of 2026.”
He said vessels are increasingly avoiding the Bab al-Mandab and Suez Canal, with global shipping flows expected to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope for an extended period.
As Bosphorus News analysis has shown, the closure of Hormuz is already shifting the energy map toward overland routes crossing Türkiye, placing the country at the centre of Europe’s supply calculus.
The International Energy Agency warned that the current disruption exceeds both the oil shocks of the 1970s and the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis in severity.
IRGC Claims Strike on US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on March 23 that it targeted the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain with missiles and drones.
Bahrain’s defence forces said they have intercepted 143 missiles and 242 drones since Iranian attacks began on February 28.
Energy and Infrastructure
Oil Falls After Trump Pause but Volatility Persists
Brent crude dropped 10 percent to around $100 per barrel on March 23 following Trump’s decision to delay strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Prices had reached approximately $119 the previous week.
Markets reversed earlier gains after Israel confirmed continued strikes on Tehran and Iran denied any negotiations.
With Gulf export routes under sustained pressure, alternative corridors are gaining renewed importance. Iraq’s decision to restart crude flows through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has turned Türkiye’s Mediterranean terminal into one of the few functioning export outlets outside Hormuz risk.
Goldman Sachs said on March 23 it expects Brent to average $110 in March and April and warned prices could exceed the 2008 peak above $147 if Hormuz flows remain severely restricted.
IEA Warns Crisis Exceeds 1970s Oil Shocks
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said on March 23 that the current crisis is “very severe” and exceeds both the 1970s oil shocks and the Russia–Ukraine gas disruption.
IEA member states agreed on March 11 to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.
US retail gasoline prices rose for a 23rd consecutive day to $3.96 per gallon, the highest level since August 2022.
Israel-Lebanon Front
Israel Destroys Additional Litani Bridge as Casualties Mount
Israel struck another bridge over the Litani River on March 23, following the destruction of the Qasmiyeh Bridge linking Tyre and Sidon.
The Israeli military said the crossing was being used by Hezbollah to move fighters into southern Lebanon. Lebanese authorities condemned the strikes.
Since March 2, more than 1,029 people have been killed in Lebanon, including over 100 children, according to the World Health Organization and Lebanese officials. Nearly one million people have been displaced.
Lebanon Summons Iranian Diplomat After IRGC Claim
Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi summoned Iran’s chargé d’affaires and delivered a formal protest, urging Tehran to stop interference in Lebanese affairs.
The move followed an IRGC statement claiming joint responsibility with Hezbollah for missile and drone attacks on Israel. President Joseph Aoun has reiterated plans to disarm Hezbollah and signalled openness to direct talks with Israel.
***Casualty figures are based on official statements and international agencies. Israeli claims on Iranian missile launchers have not been independently verified. US–Iran contact claims are disputed by Tehran. Iran’s mine-laying position does not withdraw prior threats. Zelensky’s intelligence claim remains unverified.
Sources: CNN, Al Jazeera, Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CNBC, NBC News, Times of Israel, Haaretz, Daily Sabah, Middle East Eye, Axios, Goldman Sachs, International Energy Agency, Ukrainian Presidential Office, Lebanese Presidency, IRNA, Bosphorus News.
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