Hormuz Closure Puts Türkiye at the Centre of Europe's Gas Supply

By Bosphorus News Energy Desk

One Corridor Left Standing

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since 28 February. Qatar halted production at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed on 2 March and declared force majeure on gas contracts two days later. European natural gas futures jumped roughly 30 percent in the first week of the war.

That leaves the Southern Gas Corridor, the pipeline chain running from Azerbaijan through Georgia and Türkiye to southern Europe, as the only major overland route delivering non-Russian, non-Gulf gas into EU territory.

The corridor links three pipelines. The South Caucasus Pipeline carries Azerbaijani gas from Shah Deniz through Georgia to the Turkish border. TANAP runs 1,841 kilometres across Türkiye to the Greek border, with a domestic offtake at Eskişehir. TAP continues through Greece and Albania to Italy. SOCAR operates TANAP. BOTAŞ holds 30 percent. BP holds 12 percent.

Türkiye's Exposure on Two Fronts

Every cubic metre bound for Europe crosses Turkish territory. That position carries costs as well as leverage.

Türkiye imports approximately 13 percent of its gas from Iran, around 6 billion cubic metres per year. If that flow is suspended, a monthly shortfall of 500 to 600 million cubic metres opens up, according to a March 2026 analysis by TEPAV (Türkiye Economic Policy Research Foundation), an independent Ankara-based think tank. Underground storage capacity and alternative LNG purchases make a physical supply crisis manageable in the short term, but the cost pressure is immediate.

On oil, the risk is more contained. Iraqi crude has been flowing at full capacity through the Kirkuk-Yumurtalık pipeline since 13 March 2026, following an agreement reached in August 2025. Iraq covers roughly 20 percent of Türkiye's total oil imports. That pipeline route bypasses Hormuz entirely.

The broader cost exposure is harder to absorb. Türkiye's annual energy import bill runs at approximately 65 billion dollars. Every 10-dollar rise in oil prices adds an estimated 4.5 to 5 billion dollars to the current account deficit, TEPAV calculates. The 2026 budget was built on a 65-dollar oil price assumption. That figure is no longer in play.

The Ceyhan Dimension

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which moved approximately 1.2 million barrels per day in 2024, terminates on the Mediterranean coast at Ceyhan. With Hormuz closed, Ceyhan is one of the few Eastern Mediterranean oil export points not exposed to Gulf shipping risk. The energy position now sits on the same map as a growing military one. Ankara has deployed F-16s and air defence assets to the TRNC, completed vessel traffic surveillance stations under the Eastern Mediterranean GTH project, and is negotiating passage for stranded Turkish ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Infrastructure Is Ready. Gas Is Not.

TAP added 1.2 bcm of annual capacity in January 2026 and is targeting 20 bcm throughput by 2027. TANAP's phased expansion targets 31 bcm by 2026 and 60 bcm at full build-out, requiring compressor stations and parallel loops. Germany's SEFE signed a 10-year supply contract for up to 1.5 bcm per year. President Aliyev said in January that deliveries to two additional European countries would begin this year, bringing the total to 16.

The pipeline architecture is moving. Upstream output is not keeping up. Most of Azerbaijan's export gas comes from a single field, Shah Deniz, operated by BP, which has not confirmed expanded production volumes for Phase Two. TotalEnergies' Absheron field produced 1.6 bcm in 2025; a second phase capable of reaching 6 bcm has no final investment decision. An OilPrice.com analysis from January 2026 questioned whether Azerbaijan can meet its pledged 20 bcm annual target to the EU in the near term. Neither SOCAR nor BOTAŞ has disclosed whether TANAP throughput has changed since the Hormuz closure. Q1 2026 flow data remains unreleased.

The corridor matters more to European energy security today than at any point since it came online in 2018. The constraint is no longer the pipes. It is the gas behind them.

Sources: Bosphorus News; Southern Gas Corridor Gains Strategic Weight as Hormuz Closure Hits Europe

TEPAV, "Hürmüz Krizi: Petrokimya, Gübre ve Sanayi Girdilerinde Küresel Tedarik Riski ve Türkiye'ye Etkisi," March 2026, tepav.org.tr