Türkiye Regional Research Watch | May 2026 | II
By Bosphorus News Research Desk
Study: Could defence cooperation generate a spillover effect for Türkiye-EU relations?
Institution: European Policy Centre
Date: 15 April 2026
Region / File: Türkiye-EU relations, European defence, NATO, SAFE
Research note:
A European Policy Centre policy brief examines whether defence cooperation could generate a wider spillover effect in Türkiye-EU relations. The study argues that Türkiye's relevance has grown as the European Union pushes ReArm Europe / Readiness 2030 and the Security Action for Europe, known as SAFE, while uncertainty over US security commitments has sharpened Europe's search for greater military and industrial capacity.
The brief places Türkiye's military and industrial weight at the centre of that debate. Türkiye has NATO's second-largest army, a fast-growing defence industry and operational experience across several regional theatres. Yet deeper cooperation remains constrained by political mistrust, the stalled accession process, Cyprus-related blockages and disputes with EU member states.
The study is valuable because it shows how Europe's defence debate increasingly runs into a practical question that cannot be solved by political exclusion alone: how far can the EU build a credible defence architecture while Türkiye's capacity remains outside key mechanisms?
Strategic relevance:
The study lands at a moment when Europe is trying to move from defence declarations to defence production. SAFE matters because it exposes the gap between EU political limits and NATO capability needs. Europe wants more capacity, faster procurement and stronger industrial resilience, but Türkiye's inclusion remains politically constrained even as its defence role becomes harder to ignore.
That contradiction has already appeared in Bosphorus News coverage of how Türkiye's SAFE exclusion and the F-16 modernization veto exposed a deterrence problem inside Europe's defence architecture. The EPC brief adds a policy layer to the same issue: defence cooperation may be one of the few files where practical need can still test the political freeze.
Türkiye's expanding defence industry gives the debate a harder edge. Bosphorus News recently reported on Turkish defence firms signing $8 billion in deals as ASELSAN advanced its Steel Dome push, showing how the country is moving from procurement dependency toward export capacity, layered air defence and industrial scale.
Bosphorus News reading:
The brief strengthens a central Bosphorus News line: excluding Türkiye from Europe's emerging defence architecture may satisfy internal EU politics, but it leaves a capacity problem that NATO cannot ignore. The question is no longer only whether Türkiye fits the EU's political framework. It is also whether Europe can afford to design a credible defence architecture around Türkiye's absence.
That question becomes sharper as Türkiye's defence agenda moves into higher-end deterrence. Bosphorus News recently examined Türkiye's Yıldırımhan missile prototype and the deterrence debate it opened inside NATO, a reminder that Ankara's defence role is no longer confined to drones, armoured vehicles or battlefield exports.
The EPC paper treats defence cooperation as a test case for a relationship that has lost momentum elsewhere. It does not resolve the political blockages. It clarifies the cost of leaving them untouched while Europe's security environment becomes more demanding.
***Read the study:
European Policy Centre, Could defence cooperation generate a spillover effect for Türkiye-EU relations?