Türkiye's Young Population Advantage Is Fading, Economist Warns

By Bosphorus News Economy Desk

Doç. Dr. Cevat Giray Aksoy, Senior Research Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and faculty member at King's College London, has issued a pointed warning about Türkiye's demographic trajectory.

Türkiye still carries the youngest median age in Europe at 34.4, according to Eurostat. That advantage, however, is eroding. The fertility rate fell to 1.48 in 2024, well below the 2.1 replacement threshold. If the trend holds, Aksoy calculates that per capita income growth could run 0.15 percentage points lower every year after 2050. Compounded over two to three decades, that gap translates into a substantial and permanent loss of national wealth.

The working-age population currently stands at 68.4% of the total, and the existing demographic structure could still contribute an average of 0.1 percentage points to per capita growth between now and 2050. But the composition is shifting. The 0-to-14 age cohort is shrinking as a share of the population, while those aged 65 and over are rising. In some provinces, the elderly already account for more than 20% of residents. A higher dependency ratio means rising social security and healthcare costs, and a heavier burden on the productive workforce. The window, Aksoy says, is narrowing faster than expected.

On policy, his assessment is direct. Cash incentives alone tend to shift the timing of births rather than raise the total number of children a family has. What moves the needle sustainably is structural: accessible childcare, genuine work-life balance, and stronger labour force participation among women and young people. Higher productivity and formalisation of the economy are no longer optional levers. They are the primary substitutes for a shrinking demographic dividend.

The policy response so far has not matched the scale of the problem. A proposal to extend maternity leave from 16 to 24 weeks was announced by Minister of Family and Social Services Mahinur Özdemir Göktaş in January 2026. Two months later, no legislation has reached parliament. Mothers are returning to work with infants as young as two months old. Aksoy's warning is that decisions deferred today will show up in growth figures and living standards two decades from now.

***Read the full original article in Turkish: tclira.com