Türkiye's Tourism and Export Revenue Under Threat as Middle East War Deepens
By Bosphorus News Economy Desk
$600 Million Lost Per Day Across the Region
The war that began on 28 February, when the US and Israel struck targets inside Iran, is rapidly dismantling the Middle East's tourism economy. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) estimates the region is losing approximately $600 million per day in international visitor spending, driven by airspace closures and deepening security concerns. Before the conflict, the WTTC had projected international visitor spending across the Middle East would reach around $207 billion in 2026.
The flight disruptions are already severe. KLM suspended all services to Dubai through 28 March, British Airways followed with cuts across multiple regional routes, and more than 46,000 flights have been cancelled globally since the conflict began.
Türkiye's Exposure: The Components Behind the $38 Billion Claim
Writing in Ekonomim.com on 10 March, columnist Sadi Özdemir put the combined risk to Türkiye's export and tourism revenues at $38 billion. The figure is built from two components: exports to Middle Eastern countries directly involved in active hostilities, which Özdemir places at approximately $28 billion out of a total $31 billion in regional exports, and an estimated $7 billion in tourism revenue generated last year by the roughly 5.6 million visitors who arrived from conflict-affected countries. Those two figures sum to approximately $35 billion; Bosphorus News was unable to independently verify the additional $3 billion that brings the columnist's headline figure to $38 billion.
On the ground, the strain is already visible. Warehouses in provinces that export to Iran are filling up rapidly as border crossings back up for kilometres. With Türkiye's total tourism revenue reaching $65 billion in 2025, Özdemir warns that the worst-case scenario could see losses exceeding 10 percent across both export and tourism earnings.
Ankara's Mediation Drive
Türkiye is pursuing an active diplomatic track alongside its economic exposure. President Erdoğan has held multiple rounds of talks with US President Trump, Iranian President Pezeshkian, and several other regional leaders in an effort to prevent the region from, in his words, turning into a "ring of fire." Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has stated publicly that the war is showing a tendency to spread, and is reported to be speaking with counterparts on an almost daily basis.
Ripple Effects Across the Mediterranean
The conflict's uncertainty is not contained to the immediate region. British online holiday operator On The Beach suspended its profit forecast after reporting a notable slowdown in bookings to Türkiye, Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt. Resort destinations including Antalya and Marmaris are among those registering the drop in forward reservations, with the Easter booking window, traditionally one of the strongest of the year, now at risk.
WTTC President and CEO Gloria Guevara offered cautious optimism, noting that past crises show the tourism sector can sometimes recover within two months when governments act to reassure travellers and restore confidence. The timeline for any such recovery, however, depends entirely on how the conflict develops.
***Economic loss estimates in this article are drawn from WTTC projections and analysis published by Ekonomim.com.