Crisis Group: Türkiye Moves to Contain Iran-Israel War Without Losing Regional Leverage

By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk

The International Crisis Group argues that Türkiye has kept a deliberately separate line during the Iran-Israel-U.S. confrontation. Ankara has avoided aligning fully with either side, kept channels open to Washington and Tehran, and focused on mediation while trying to keep the conflict away from its own borders.

The report places Türkiye's current posture inside a wider regional shift. Iran's loss of leverage in Syria, Hizbollah's weakening in Lebanon and the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime have opened more room for Türkiye and Israel to compete. Syria has become the central arena of that rivalry, with Ankara backing the new order in Damascus while Israel seeks to limit both Syrian military recovery and Turkish influence.

Crisis Group says Turkish officials increasingly view Israel as a state willing to project force across Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Qatar and Iran. Israeli officials and commentators, in turn, have begun framing Türkiye as a possible "new Iran", a regional power that could build influence at Israel's expense. The report says this mutual suspicion has pushed relations into a deeper downward trend, even though military deconfliction channels over Syria remain open.

The commentary also highlights Ankara's failed pre-war diplomacy. Türkiye tried to promote talks between the United States and Iran, including a possible regional track involving Türkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states. Those efforts did not stop the war, but Crisis Group says they confirmed Ankara's ability to speak to both sides and gave Turkish officials a clearer view of why diplomacy collapsed.

Once the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, Türkiye's priority shifted to staying out of the conflict. Crisis Group says Ankara even avoided escalation after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Türkiye in March, likely aimed at facilities hosting NATO assets. Turkish officials treated the incident as serious but contained, partly because NATO air defences destroyed the missiles and no damage was reported.

The report identifies three main Turkish concerns. The first is an emboldened Iran using missiles, proxies and the Strait of Hormuz to recover lost regional leverage. The second is a weakened or collapsing Iran creating instability on Türkiye's eastern border. The third is a more aggressive Israel using Iran's decline to expand military action in Syria, Lebanon and the wider region.

Iranian fragmentation is one of the report's most important points. Crisis Group says Ankara fears a breakdown inside Iran could create refugee pressure larger than the Syrian crisis, given Iran's population of about 92 million. It also warns that any mobilisation by Iranian Kurdish factions would directly affect Türkiye's delicate talks with the PKK, especially after Abdullah Öcalan's May 2025 call for the group to lay down arms.

The Azeri dimension also matters. The report says Turkish officials are watching how instability in Iran could affect the estimated 15 million Azeris living there, and how Azerbaijan might be pulled into a wider confrontation. Crisis Group notes that Ankara has encouraged restraint in Baku, especially after Iranian drones struck Nakhchivan on March 5.

Looking ahead, Crisis Group sees Türkiye trying to convert crisis management into regional influence. Ankara is working with Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia on de-escalation while also positioning itself as a security and defence partner for Gulf states worried about both Iran and Israel. Türkiye's NATO membership, military capacity and drone industry strengthen that appeal.

Energy corridors are another strategic layer. Crisis Group says Ankara and Gulf capitals share an interest in land routes that would reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. One idea under discussion involves pipelines carrying Gulf oil and gas through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Türkiye toward European markets.

The report's hardest conclusion concerns Israel. Crisis Group says Türkiye will try to prevent tensions with both Iran and Israel from boiling over, but relations with Israel are the bigger challenge. Competition between the two countries is likely to intensify in Syria, the Gulf, the Horn of Africa and the Levant. Even if communication channels remain open, Turkish-Israeli rivalry is likely to remain one of the central dynamics shaping the Middle East after the current war ends.

***Full Report: https://www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/europe/turkiye-israelpalestine-iran-united-states/turkiye-charts-distinctive-course-amid-middle-east-turmoil