Global Terrorism Deaths Hit Record Low. For Türkiye, the Real Risk Starts Now

By Bosphorus News Security Desk

A Record Low With a Warning Attached

Global terrorism deaths fell to their lowest level on record in 2025. The Global Terrorism Index 2026, published this month by the Institute for Economics and Peace, ranked Türkiye 36th out of 163 countries, four positions lower than the previous edition. The ranking reflects data collected before 28 February 2026. Since that date, four Iranian ballistic missiles have entered Turkish airspace, CIA contacts with PJAK-linked factions on Türkiye's eastern border have been confirmed, and Islamic State has announced a new operational phase in Syria. None of that is in the index.

Deaths from terrorism fell 28 percent globally in 2025 to 5,582, the lowest figure on record. Attacks declined 22 percent to 2,944 incidents. The report explicitly states that the Iran war, which began on 28 February 2026 after the measurement period closed, "greatly escalates the risk of future terrorism."

Pakistan at the Top, Sahel Still Dominant

Pakistan ranked first for the first time, overtaking Burkina Faso with a score of 8.574 and recording 1,139 deaths across 1,045 incidents. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan was responsible for 56 percent of those deaths. Nearly 70 percent of all global terrorism deaths occurred in five countries: Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Islamic State remained the world's deadliest terrorist organisation, active in 15 countries. IS attacks in sub-Saharan Africa nearly doubled while attacks in the Middle East and North Africa fell 39 percent. The mass escape of over 20,000 IS-affiliated individuals from Syrian detention facilities in early 2026 is identified as one of the most significant emerging terrorism risks globally.

Türkiye: Four Positions Lower, Exposure Higher

Türkiye ranked 36th with a score of 3.212. The GTI uses a five-year weighted lag, so the 2026 edition reflects cumulative data through 2025. The decline is relative: other countries improved faster. Among Türkiye's immediate neighbours, Iraq ranked 16th, Iran 18th and Syria 6th. None improved their position.

The four-position decline understates actual exposure. The report's borderland chapter finds that 41 percent of all 2025 attacks occurred within 50 kilometres of an international border. Türkiye's eastern and southeastern borders fall directly within those parameters, and conditions on both sides changed materially after 28 February 2026.

Three Variables the Index Cannot Yet Capture

The Iran war is the most consequential risk the data cannot show. "The joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran, launched on 28 February 2026, greatly escalates the risk of future terrorism," the report states, warning that Iran's proxy networks mean "the consequences of this escalation will affect the entire region and beyond."

A weakened Iranian security apparatus along Türkiye's 500-kilometre eastern frontier removes the counterpart Ankara has relied on to contain cross-border militant movement. CIA contacts with PJAK-linked factions, the Iranian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, confirmed by CNN and Reuters in early March, drew an immediate public warning from Türkiye's Defence Ministry. Incirlik Air Base in Adana province was already the target of an Iranian ballistic missile on 4 March, intercepted by NATO defences over the Eastern Mediterranean.

In Syria, IS announced a new operational phase in late February 2026. In South Asia, Pakistan and Afghanistan moved to open conflict the same month, straining a regional security architecture already absorbing the Iran war's shocks.

What the 2027 Edition Will Measure

The GTI 2026 is the last edition that predates the Iran war. Türkiye's score in the 2027 edition will depend on whether PJAK exploits the opening on its eastern border, whether IS reconstitutes along the Syrian and Iraqi frontiers, and whether Iran's proxy networks direct activity toward Turkish territory or interests. All three variables were active before the index's measurement window closed.

***Full Report: https://www.economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Global-Terrorism-Index-2026-Report.pdf

GTI scores reflect 2025 incident data with a five-year weighted lag. The report does not include a dedicated section on Türkiye. Forward-looking risk assessments are the analytical judgement of IEP authors.