Carnegie Europe Says Türkiye’s Defence Value Is Rising but EU Trust Gap Remains
By Bosphorus News Staff
A new Carnegie Europe commentary by senior fellow Marc Pierini argues that Europe's relationship with Türkiye is moving into a narrower and more pragmatic phase, where defence-industrial cooperation may advance even as a broader political-security partnership remains blocked.
Pierini's May 8 commentary, titled "Deciphering Europe's Relationship With Turkey," says debate is intensifying over how Türkiye could be integrated into a common European defence framework. His central argument is that commercial and industrial agreements offer a more realistic path than sweeping political efforts.
The analysis places Türkiye inside a wider European security crisis shaped by Russia's war against Ukraine, the Israel-Gaza war, conflict involving Iran and Israel, and the Trump administration's more hostile posture toward the European Union after Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025. Pierini argues that Europe is under pressure to rebuild its defence capacity while reducing dependence on Washington.
Türkiye's role in that debate is difficult to separate from its defence industry. The Carnegie commentary points to Baykar's joint venture with Leonardo, the United Kingdom's Eurofighter Typhoon sale to Türkiye, a British-Turkish strategic partnership framework, and Airbus-Turkish Aerospace cooperation on Hürjet aircraft for Spain as examples of a growing industrial track between Türkiye and European partners. Bosphorus News has also reported how Türkiye's defence firms signed $8 billion in SAHA 2026 deals, underscoring the commercial momentum behind Ankara's defence export push.
Pierini does not frame this as the opening of a grand bargain. His commentary presents Türkiye as an ambivalent partner for European leaders: militarily valuable, geographically central and industrially capable, but politically difficult to integrate into a deeper EU security architecture. He cites Ankara's S-400 purchase from Russia, the resulting exclusion from the F-35 programme, sanctions-related controversies, continued economic links with Russia, weak rule-of-law standards and the stalled EU accession process as barriers to trust.
The commentary also points to Europe's reinforced posture in the Eastern Mediterranean, including political and military backing for Cyprus and French support for Greece. That reading intersects with recent Bosphorus News coverage of Ankara's maritime posture, including Türkiye's reported move to place its Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean claims on a clearer domestic legal footing.
The result, in Pierini's view, is a constrained path forward. Türkiye may participate in Europe's defence build-up, but more likely through bilateral commercial and industrial agreements than through a formal EU-Türkiye political-security bargain. For European capitals, Turkish defence capacity is becoming more useful; the political trust required for a deeper framework remains weak.
***Credit: This article summarizes and credits Marc Pierini's Carnegie Europe commentary, "Deciphering Europe's Relationship With Turkey," published on May 8, 2026. The original analysis was authored by Marc Pierini and published by Carnegie Europe.
https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/posts/2026/05/deciphering-europes-relationship-with-turkey