On the Rule of Law and Economic Growth: The Example of Osimhen and Mario Lemina

When defining a country, especially at the level of policymakers, one must be very careful about the adjectives placed in front of “state.” Labels such as “democratic state,” “rule-of-law state,” or “judicial state” may sound similar, but they actually carry fundamentally different meanings. Recently, we’ve heard the term “judicial state” increasingly used in our country — perhaps deliberately. Phrases like “we trust the judiciary,” “the trial is ongoing,” or “there is a problem in the judiciary,” sound harmless on the surface, but substituting judicial state for state of law changes the structure and the meaning entirely. Ulusoy argues clearly: Turkey is not a judicial state — it is, or at least ought to be, a state of law. He warns that using “judicial” instead of “law” could reflect either ignorance or a deeper structural distortion. In theory, we claim to be a rule-of-law state — but in practice, Ulusoy says, that claim no longer holds. According to the World Justice Project’s most recent data, Turkey now ranks 118th out of 143 countries, sharing that space with Russia, Nigeria, and Gabon. That’s a harsh reality check. He draws a sharp parallel: while Turkish football dazzles with stars like Nigerian striker Victor Osimhen and Gabon’s Mario Lemina, in terms of the rule of law, we are playing in the same “bottom league” as those countries. It’s not just disappointing — it’s deeply shameful. So why does this “bottom-league” status in the rule of law matter? Ulusoy explains that once a society drops below a certain threshold, the details of its legal system matter less — the effect on economic growth and social welfare is both direct and severe. He cites Nobel-winning economists Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson, and Simon Johnson, who have argued that institutions — especially those that uphold the rule of law — are key drivers of long-term economic growth. He also refers to a study published in the Harvard Law Journal (2024) that examined 134 countries between 1984 and 2019, finding a very strong correlation between rule of law and economic growth: a 10% increase in the rule-of-law index was linked to a 3.5%–4.2% rise in per capita income. On top of that, improvements in institutional quality (like judicial independence) were found to boost growth by about 0.2–0.4 percentage points. Ulusoy does the math for Türkiye: even a small improvement in rule of law could put $600 more per year into each person's pocket, on average. But he stresses that it’s not just about the money — better rule of law also lifts social development, public trust, and overall welfare. Unfortunately, he argues, the decline in legal institutions — together with corruption and a lack of judicial independence — is one of the main institutional reasons behind Turkey’s economic struggles. To reverse this path, Ulusoy warns, “deep and structural changes” are needed in the political landscape.