Iran's New Supreme Leader Has Not Been Seen in 30 Days. Türkiye Is Still Passing His Messages
By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk |
Thirty Days, No Appearance
Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, was appointed on 8 March after the Assembly of Experts chose him to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening US-Israeli strikes on 28 February. In the thirty days since, he has not appeared in public once.
No video. No audio. No live address. Every statement attributed to him has been a written text, read aloud by a state television presenter while a still photograph was displayed on screen. Iranian state media has published images of Khamenei but provided no timestamps. The CIA is actively trying to determine whether the photographs are recent, a US official told Axios.
The silence broke its most visible precedent on 21 March, Nowruz, the Iranian new year. His father appeared publicly every Nowruz without exception. Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written message on Telegram instead. US and Israeli intelligence officials described the absence as a "serious red flag."
On 29 March, he issued a written message thanking Iraq's religious leadership and people for their support "in the face of aggression," the Islamic Republic News Agency reported. The message followed a meeting between the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and Iran's ambassador to Baghdad. He was not present for its delivery.
What Is Known About His Condition
The strikes that killed his father on 28 February also hit the family compound. His mother, wife and other family members were killed. Israeli officials told Axios that Mojtaba Khamenei was in the compound at the time and sustained leg injuries. He had stepped into the yard minutes before the missiles hit, according to leaked audio obtained by The Telegraph, purportedly featuring remarks by Mazaher Hosseini, head of protocol in the office of Ali Khamenei, delivered to senior IRGC commanders on 12 March.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said publicly that Iran's new supreme leader is wounded and "likely disfigured," without providing evidence. Trump, speaking to reporters on Air Force One on 29 March, said: "He may be alive, but he's obviously in trouble. He's seriously wounded." On 16 March he had gone further: "We don't know if he is living."
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pushed back on 14 March. "There is no problem with the new supreme leader," he told reporters, without elaboration. Iranian state media referred to Khamenei at one point using the term "janbaz," a Persian word reserved for disabled war veterans, before quietly dropping the usage.
Iranian opposition figure Mohsen Sazegara told Euronews that sources inside Iran described abdominal and leg surgery, with possible facial injuries. None of these accounts has been independently verified.
Who Is Actually in Control
The uncertainty over Khamenei's condition has sharpened a structural question: who is running Iran.
With top IRGC generals killed in the opening strikes, Iran's armed forces shifted to a "mosaic defence" strategy that devolves operational authority to local commanders. The Assembly of Experts itself lost members when Israeli strikes destroyed its building in Qom during the succession process. It remains unclear whether all 88 members were alive when the vote was taken.
The command gap surfaced publicly on 16 March when President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iranian forces had been ordered to halt attacks on neighbouring countries unless Iran was attacked first. Drone and missile strikes on Gulf states continued every day afterward. The order was either ignored or countermanded. Neither outcome has been officially explained.
CIA and Mossad briefings to Trump's national security team have repeatedly raised the question of who holds real authority in Tehran, according to Axios. Intelligence indicated that Iranian officials had attempted to arrange personal meetings with Khamenei but were turned away for security reasons.
Trump said on 30 March that Washington is engaging with a "top person" in Iran on a possible ceasefire. He specified it was not the supreme leader.
Türkiye's Unanswered Question
Türkiye has been passing messages between Washington and Tehran since the war began. Harun Armagan, vice chairman for foreign affairs in the ruling AK Party, confirmed on 30 March that Ankara has been "playing a role passing messages" between the two sides. Reuters reported last week that Turkish officials had been helping relay communications as part of a broader mediation effort alongside Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
The mediation rests on a basic assumption: that there is a functioning counterpart in Tehran capable of receiving, evaluating and responding to proposals. Khamenei's thirty-day absence and the unresolved question of real authority in Tehran directly undermines that assumption.
Trump's statement that his interlocutor is not the supreme leader raises a further question Türkiye has not addressed publicly. If Washington is bypassing Khamenei and engaging with another figure inside the Iranian system, Türkiye's message-passing role may be running parallel to, rather than feeding into, the channel that actually matters.
Pakistan delivered the US 15-point plan to Tehran and Iran responded negatively, but whether that response came from Khamenei, the IRGC, President Pezeshkian or some combination of the three has not been established, which means Türkiye has spent thirty days passing messages into a room where nobody has confirmed who is sitting.
***Mojtaba Khamenei's medical condition is based on unverified accounts from Iranian opposition sources, unnamed Iranian officials and leaked audio cited by The Telegraph. None has been independently confirmed. Trump's statement that Washington is engaging with a "top person" who is not the supreme leader has not been elaborated upon by the White House. CIA and Mossad assessment details are sourced to Axios citing unnamed US and Israeli officials.