Kazakhstan Approves New Constitution in Snap Referendum

By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk

Tokayev's Third Constitution

Kazakh voters approved a new constitution in a referendum on 15 March, replacing the 1995 charter with the country's third since independence. The Central Referendum Commission reported 87 percent support on a turnout of 73 percent. The result was announced in the early hours of 16 March.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed the referendum decree on 11 February, giving the public four weeks before the vote. The draft text was published on 12 February. The ballot posed a single question with no option to vote on individual provisions.

Tokayev described the document as a "historical constitution" that would lead Kazakhstan to "new achievements and successes." The new charter takes effect on 1 July 2026.

Structural Overhaul

The constitution transforms parliament from a bicameral body into a single-chamber assembly called the Kurultay, with 145 members elected by proportional representation for five-year terms. The existing Senate and Mäjilis will be dissolved.

The office of vice president, abolished in 1996, is restored. The president will appoint the vice president directly. The charter also gives the president the right to nominate all candidates for the Supreme Court, the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Audit Chamber and the Central Election Commission, subject to Kurultay approval.

Constitutional amendments will now require a referendum rather than parliamentary approval. Tokayev framed this provision as a safeguard against unilateral changes by future governments.

Succession Question

Analysts and opposition figures say the new charter creates a path for Tokayev to remain in power beyond 2029, when his current term expires. Two scenarios have been identified. He could use the referendum result as justification for resetting the presidential term clock under the new constitution. Alternatively, he could step into the newly created vice presidency while installing a successor as president.

Chatham House assessed on 16 March that both Russia and China would favour continuity, viewing Tokayev as a stable partner. The analysis noted that Kazakhstan is moving toward a more institutional authoritarian model closer to China's political economy than to Western liberal frameworks.

Former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, 85, published a statement backing the constitution and reaffirming his support for Tokayev. Nazarbayev was stripped of his remaining official posts after the January 2022 unrest in which hundreds were killed.

Language and Civil Liberties

The new constitution elevates Kazakh as the country's primary language. Russian retains official status but is effectively downgraded. The provision is likely to draw attention in Moscow, where language policy in former Soviet states remains a sensitive issue.

Human rights groups have raised concerns over provisions that place caveats on freedom of speech and ban foreign financing of political parties and trade unions. In the weeks before the vote, journalists critical of the draft were detained and police intimidation was reported at campaign events, according to Eurasianet.

Zauresh Battalova, head of the Fund for Parliamentary Development, said the changes reaffirmed a "super-presidential system" rather than distributing power.

Regional Position

Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia and a major energy exporter. The country is a member of the Organisation of Turkic States alongside Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. It surpassed China in GDP per capita growth in 2025, according to IMF data.

The referendum took place as global energy markets remain under stress from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Kazakhstan's oil exports, routed primarily through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, bypass the strait entirely.

The referendum was conducted under a state-backed campaign that included free concerts, celebrity endorsements and extensive public advertising. No significant organized opposition campaign was permitted. International observer missions from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation monitored polling stations. Western election monitoring bodies have not issued formal assessments at the time of publication.