Iraq’s Oil Exports via Ceyhan Set to Rise Sharply in February
Bosphorus News Energy Desk
Iraq is preparing to significantly increase crude oil exports through Türkiye’s Ceyhan terminal, marking a further step in the gradual revival of the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline after a prolonged disruption.
According to February loading programmes, Baghdad plans to export approximately 223,000 barrels per day of Kirkuk crude, representing a 21 percent increase compared with January’s average levels. The bulk of these volumes will be shipped through the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline to the Mediterranean, with a portion expected to be supplied to Türkiye’s domestic refining system.
The planned increase builds on the resumption of oil flows in late September 2025, when exports from northern Iraq restarted after more than two and a half years of suspension. The halt followed legal disputes and arbitration proceedings that effectively froze shipments through the pipeline in March 2023.
When flows resumed, initial volumes were limited, reflecting both technical caution and political sensitivities between Baghdad, Erbil, and international oil companies operating in the region. Since then, exports have been gradually scaled up, with February’s programme signalling the most substantial increase since operations restarted.
The renewed export momentum also reflects a shift in coordination between Iraq’s federal authorities and the Kurdistan Regional Government. Under the current framework, Iraq’s state oil marketer oversees the marketing of northern crude, while revenue-sharing arrangements are tied to the federal budget mechanism. This structure has enabled Baghdad to reassert control over export volumes while maintaining a working arrangement with Erbil.
For Türkiye, the revival of the Kirkuk–Ceyhan route reinforces its role as a key energy transit hub linking Iraqi production to global markets. The pipeline’s operation strengthens Türkiye’s position in regional energy trade and adds to the strategic relevance of Ceyhan as a Mediterranean export terminal.
Despite the increase, current volumes remain below the pipeline’s historical capacity, leaving room for further expansion if political coordination and commercial terms hold. Any sustained ramp-up will depend on continued alignment between Baghdad and Erbil, as well as stable transit arrangements with Türkiye.
For Iraq, higher exports through the Turkish corridor offer both fiscal and strategic benefits. Increased flows support budget revenues and enhance Baghdad’s flexibility in managing output amid shifting global oil market conditions.
February’s planned rise in exports does not yet signal a full return to pre-2023 levels, but it does underline a clear trend: the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline is re-emerging as a central artery in Iraq’s northern export strategy, with Türkiye once again playing a pivotal role in that equation.