GEOPOLITICAL PARADOX: Does Armenia's Dual Policy Undermine Its Normalization 'Sincerity'?

The Foreign Ministries of Armenia and Cyprus held comprehensive political consultations on November 25, 2025, underscoring a deepening strategic alliance that is increasingly defined by shared security concerns in the Eastern Mediterranean and the South Caucasus.

While the consultations served to solidify defense cooperation—a critical component of Armenia’s post-2020 security strategy—the move throws into sharp relief the fundamental contradiction at the heart of Yerevan’s foreign policy: the simultaneous pursuit of a long-term diplomatic thaw with Turkey.

The Question of Sincerity

This acceleration of security ties with nations actively engaged in disputes with Ankara (Cyprus over sovereignty, Greece over maritime boundaries) has prompted questions about the ultimate bona fides of Armenia’s normalization efforts.

The policy appears increasingly contradictory in execution:

• The Conflict: Armenia continues to meet with Turkish special envoys for talks aimed at opening the border and establishing diplomatic ties. Yet, just as these talks resume, Yerevan is actively formalizing military pacts and engaging in joint defense purchases with the very nations Turkey views as its primary regional adversaries.
• The View from Ankara: Turkish officials have consistently signaled that full normalization with Armenia remains contingent upon Yerevan first signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. By aggressively cementing a trilateral military framework with Greece and Cyprus, Armenia risks fueling Turkish perceptions that its diplomatic outreach is not a genuine pursuit of peace but a calculated strategy to diversify security dependencies before committing to a final, difficult agreement with Baku.

Analysts suggest this "geopolitical tightrope walk" faces mounting pressure, as the security benefits derived from the trilateral pact with Turkey's rivals may be deemed not worth the cost of indefinitely postponing the critical economic opportunities that would accompany a normalized, open border with Turkey.

Shared Security Agenda and Defense Integration

In their consultations, both nations reaffirmed their strong mutual support on core regional conflicts:

• Cyprus Issue: Armenia reiterated its unwavering support for the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of the Republic of Cyprus, backing efforts for a stable and lasting settlement based on international law.
• South Caucasus Stability: Cyprus offered strong support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia, with discussions covering the status of the August 2025 peace agreement with Azerbaijan.

The military cooperation under the Armenia-Greece-Cyprus trilateral framework is now systematic and formalized. Defense cooperation programs for 2025 outline continued activities such as joint training exercises and military personnel exchanges, cementing their roles as interconnected security pillars across the region.

The fundamental dilemma for Yerevan is whether it can successfully integrate into a security alliance explicitly opposed to Ankara’s regional interests without ultimately jeopardizing the very normalization process it claims is vital for its future.