ECFR Lays Out Three-Step EU–Turkey Security Plan Across Black Sea and Iran Crisis
By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk
A commentary published on April 10 by the European Council on Foreign Relations argues that the European Union and Türkiye should move toward structured, operational security cooperation as regional instability reshapes strategic priorities.
Written by Maria Simeonova and Angela Ziccardi, the analysis outlines a three-step framework centred on the Black Sea, the South Caucasus and the Iran crisis, framing Türkiye as a "key security actor" rather than a peripheral partner.
The first step focuses on the Black Sea. The authors underline Türkiye's control over the Turkish Straits and argue that this position makes Ankara indispensable to regional maritime security. They call for "more operational coordination" between the EU and Türkiye, including intelligence-sharing and surveillance cooperation, suggesting that existing EU initiatives could be aligned with Turkish capabilities to produce a more coherent security presence.
The second step shifts to the South Caucasus, where the analysis highlights the risks of fragmented diplomatic engagement. Instead of parallel tracks, the authors propose structured coordination between the EU and Türkiye on conflict mediation and infrastructure security. The paper links this directly to broader geopolitical competition, noting that coordinated engagement would strengthen Europe's position "in a region where Russia's influence is being contested and China's economic presence is expanding."
The third step addresses the Iran crisis. The authors argue that Türkiye's ability to maintain dialogue with multiple actors gives it a unique role in de-escalation efforts. They call for closer diplomatic alignment between Brussels and Ankara, stressing that "sustained coordination" could help mitigate the economic and security fallout of a wider regional escalation, particularly in energy markets and supply chains.
Beyond these three pillars, the ECFR analysis makes a broader political argument. It suggests that progress in security cooperation could open space for movement on long-stalled dossiers, including customs union modernisation and visa liberalisation. In the authors' view, rebuilding trust through concrete cooperation is a prerequisite for any meaningful political reset.
At the same time, the paper does not ignore structural constraints. It explicitly notes that disagreements involving Greece and Cyprus continue to shape the limits of EU–Türkiye engagement. However, it argues that current geopolitical pressures may create conditions where these disputes become more manageable within a wider strategic framework.
***The full analysis is available via ECFR here.