Brookings: Türkiye Carries the Highest Indirect Risk in the Iran War
By Bosphorus News Geopolitics Desk
In a multi-author analysis, Brookings Institution Turkey Project fellows Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Kemal Kirişci argue that Türkiye is not a party to the conflict but stands among the countries facing its heaviest indirect costs. Three additional sections of the analysis, on energy markets, Russian paralysis, and the erosion of international law, bear directly on Ankara's position.
The Geopolitical Calculation: A Known Iran vs. an Israeli-Shaped Order
Erdoğan's initial response signalled Ankara's positioning clearly. He blamed Netanyahu directly for triggering the conflict and made no reference to the U.S. military role. Ankara reads Trump as a transactional actor, one likely to declare a quick victory and return to nuclear diplomacy. Israel occupies a different category. Türkiye assesses that Israeli objectives extend beyond nuclear constraints toward a broader regional reorganisation built on a fractured Iran, a trajectory that conflicts directly with Ankara's own regional interests.
Ankara favours the Iran it knows over a post-war order shaped on Israeli terms. It is not in the war. It is not fully outside it either. A quiet exit diplomacy is underway, with contact maintained toward Washington and figures inside the Iranian regime.
Demographic and Economic Vulnerability: The Syrian Precedent
Türkiye shares a 534-kilometre land border with Iran. Estimates circulating in Ankara suggest a full-scale conflict could push up to one million people toward that border. The Syrian precedent governs the calculation. Türkiye opened its borders in 2011 expecting a quick regime change. It could not close them for a decade and still hosts more than 2.3 million Syrians. Their presence carries lasting social, political and economic consequences.
The economic position is already strained. High inflation, a vulnerable currency and a difficult current account deficit leave little room. Kirişci argues that Türkiye has neither the political tolerance nor the economic capacity to absorb a new wave.
Energy: The Strait of Hormuz
Brookings energy fellow Samantha Gross identifies the Strait of Hormuz as the world's most critical energy chokepoint, with roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply passing through it daily. Pipeline bypass capacity stands at around 2.6 million barrels per day against a normal flow of 20 million. Even without a full military closure, a withdrawal of tanker operators and insurers from the corridor produces much the same market effect.
A sustained disruption would widen Türkiye's current account deficit, accelerate inflation and tighten an already constrained fiscal position.
Russia's Paralysis: Ankara's Opening
Brookings fellows Pavel Baev and Steven Pifer document a consistent pattern. Russia condemned the June 2025 U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities and took no action. It stood by as Assad fell. It expressed solidarity over Venezuela and did nothing. Despite a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with Iran that entered into force in October 2025, Moscow's response to the current strikes has again remained rhetorical. A military bogged down in Ukraine has neither the capacity nor the appetite to project force in support of distant partners.
Consecutive displays of Kremlin impotence strengthen Ankara's position as a mediator, its weight in Ukraine diplomacy, and its room to manage the Iran crisis on its own terms.