Türkiye Regional Research Watch | June 2026 | IV

By Bosphorus News Research Desk

Study

Turkey's Iraq Gambit Amid the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Institution

Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies

Date

28 May 2026

Region / File

Türkiye, Iraq, Strait of Hormuz, Ceyhan, Development Road, PKK, Iran-linked armed groups, Gulf security

Research note

A new RUSI commentary examines Türkiye's Iraq policy under the pressure created by the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The paper places Ankara's Iraq file at the intersection of security, energy transit and regional connectivity.

Iraq is not treated here as a narrow border-security theatre for Türkiye. Ceyhan, the Development Road project, Baghdad-Erbil relations, PKK containment and Iran-linked armed groups appear inside the same strategic field. Türkiye's Iraq policy, in this reading, is no longer limited to counterterrorism or tactical coordination with Baghdad. It also concerns route security, export leverage and Ankara's place in Iraq's search for options when Gulf disruption exposes the country's vulnerabilities.

RUSI keeps the Ceyhan question within realistic limits. The route does not replace Hormuz and cannot absorb Iraq's wider export exposure on its own. Its value is narrower. It gives Iraq partial optionality and gives Türkiye added weight in Baghdad and Erbil at a moment when energy flows, fiscal pressure and armed-group politics are increasingly connected.

Strategic relevance

The study captures a shift in Türkiye-Iraq relations often reduced to the PKK, military operations or high-level diplomacy. RUSI widens the frame by linking Hormuz disruption, the Ceyhan export route and the Development Road project to the security file.

Iraq is becoming a corridor-security arena. Türkiye's influence depends on more than border operations or diplomatic access. It also depends on whether Baghdad and Erbil see Ankara as a route provider, trade partner and stabilising actor when Gulf risks rise.

Development Road receives a grounded treatment. It is not presented as a simple transport scheme linking the Gulf to Türkiye and Europe. It belongs to a broader contest over redundancy, energy logistics and political control of routes. Its future will depend on security conditions inside Iraq, Baghdad-Erbil coordination, financing, customs capacity and militia pressure around strategic infrastructure.

Bosphorus News reading

The RUSI paper treats Türkiye's Iraq policy as a corridor-security package in which Ceyhan, Development Road and armed-group containment now belong to the same strategic file.

This frame overlaps with Bosphorus News' reading of Türkiye's rational line on the Iran conflict. Ankara's concern was not alignment with Tehran. It was the cost of state-capacity failure, border pressure, provocation risk and Iraq-Syria spillover.

Iraq is where this argument becomes concrete. Iran-linked armed groups, Kurdish security politics, Gulf energy disruption and overland route planning all meet there. Baghdad and Erbil may look more closely to Türkiye when Gulf routes come under pressure, but Ceyhan and Development Road will only carry strategic weight if Iraq can keep the routes secure enough to be trusted.

***Read the study: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/turkeys-iraq-gambit-amid-strait-hormuz-crisis