Italy Seeks More Azerbaijani Gas as Qatar Supply Shock Ripples Through Europe

By Bosphorus News Energy Desk

Iranian strikes on Qatar's liquefied natural gas facilities have forced Italy to seek alternative supplies, with Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin confirming on March 20 that Rome is in talks with the United States, Azerbaijan and Algeria to cover the shortfall.

QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on exports, informing Italian utility Edison that it cannot fulfil contractual obligations for April deliveries. Edison holds a long-term contract with QatarEnergy covering 6.4 billion cubic meters per year, close to 10 percent of Italy's annual gas consumption. "The very fact that Qatar's LNG plant that had been shut down was also bombed had a devastating impact on prices," Pichetto Fratin said. Italy and the EU have agreed not to return to Russian gas regardless of the supply pressure.

Azerbaijan is Italy's main pipeline gas supplier, delivering Caspian gas via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), the European leg of the Southern Gas Corridor, which crosses Greece, Albania and the Adriatic Sea before landing in southern Italy. TAP expanded its long-term transmission capacity by 1.2 billion cubic meters per year from January 1, 2026, bringing total contracted capacity to 11.2 bcm annually.

Delivery Gap

Italy's approach comes against an awkward backdrop. Azerbaijan's gas exports to Greece fell in January 2026 compared to the same month a year earlier, both in volume and value. Deliveries to Bulgaria and Serbia also declined year-on-year in January. Azerbaijan exported 80.1 million cubic meters of gas to Greece in January 2026, valued at $33.7 million, down from the prior year. No official explanation for the declines has been issued.

Capacity Question

Azerbaijan and the European Commission signed a memorandum in 2022 to expand the Southern Gas Corridor from 10 to 20 billion cubic meters per year by 2027. The January 2026 TAP expansion is the first concrete step toward that target. But the gap between current capacity and the 20 bcm goal remains large. Azerbaijan's upstream gas production faces constraints, including limited new field development and growing domestic consumption. The Absheron gas field, expected to add up to 4 billion cubic meters of production, has not yet reached full output. Whether Baku can meaningfully increase flows to Italy in the near term, on top of honouring existing contracts with Greece and Bulgaria, remains an open question.