Abraham Accords’ Full Potential Hinges on Türkiye’s Inclusion, Atlantic Council Analysis Argues

The long-term impact of the Abraham Accords will remain limited unless Türkiye is meaningfully integrated into the region’s evolving diplomatic and economic architecture, according to a recent analysis published by the Atlantic Council. The report argues that Ankara’s exclusion risks reinforcing fragmentation at a time when the Middle East needs broader, more inclusive cooperation frameworks.

The Abraham Accords, launched in 2020 to normalize relations between Israel and several Arab states, marked a major diplomatic shift. They unlocked new channels for trade, investment, and political dialogue. However, the Atlantic Council analysis suggests that these gains have so far been confined to a relatively narrow group of participants, limiting the accords’ ability to reshape the wider regional order.

Why Türkiye Matters

The report highlights Türkiye’s strategic weight as a regional power with deep economic ties, diplomatic reach, and security influence across the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean, and North Africa. As a NATO member with longstanding relations across competing blocs, Ankara is described as uniquely positioned to act as a bridge rather than a spoiler in regional normalization efforts.

According to the analysis, sustainable regional integration requires engaging actors that may not align perfectly with all existing participants but whose absence leaves critical gaps. Türkiye’s continued exclusion, the authors argue, feeds mutual suspicion and encourages parallel, sometimes competing, regional initiatives.

Economic and Strategic Upside

Beyond diplomacy, the report points to tangible economic incentives for broader inclusion. Türkiye’s industrial capacity, logistics networks, and energy transit potential could significantly expand the economic footprint of post-Accords cooperation. Joint projects in energy infrastructure, transportation corridors, technology, and climate adaptation are cited as areas where collaboration could generate mutual benefits while building confidence.

The analysis also notes that wider participation could help demonstrate that regional normalization is not solely elite-driven or limited to bilateral deals, but capable of delivering broader economic dividends — an important factor for public legitimacy across the region.

Balancing Concerns and Engagement

The report adopts a measured tone, acknowledging that reservations toward Türkiye exist among some current Abraham Accords participants. It stresses that inclusion does not imply endorsement of every policy position, but rather a pragmatic recognition that regional stability depends on engaging influential actors rather than sidelining them.

Western partners, particularly the United States and European actors, are encouraged to pursue calibrated diplomacy that reassures existing signatories while opening structured channels for Turkish participation. Such an approach, the analysis argues, could reduce polarization and help anchor the accords within a more resilient regional framework.

Implications for Regional Stability

From Ankara’s perspective, the report reflects a broader debate over whether Middle East diplomacy will evolve toward inclusive multilateralism or remain shaped by selective partnerships. Türkiye has repeatedly emphasized that durable stability requires dialogue, economic interdependence, and respect for regional balances.

The Atlantic Council analysis suggests that without Türkiye’s involvement, the Abraham Accords risk remaining an important but incomplete initiative — impactful in parts, yet insufficient to address the region’s deeper strategic and economic divides.

As regional dynamics continue to shift, the report concludes that the future relevance of the Abraham Accords will depend on their ability to expand beyond their original format. Integrating Türkiye, it argues, would not only broaden the accords’ reach but also strengthen their credibility as a foundation for long-term regional cooperation rather than a narrow diplomatic arrangement.